There are a number of different things that you need to consider before betting on anything, and horse racing has its own unique set of factors that we take into account before posting our professional horse racing tips.
Form
Just as you would in a regular sport, form is one of the first things that any horse racing tipster will consider when analysing a race. Horses, just like players, go through bouts of good and bad form, and checking how they have been running of late is vital. This can extend beyond just their general form, too; you’ll want to consider their form in certain specific conditions, which we will go into more detail about below, as well as how they have been running in this particular preparation – more about that below, too.
Track Condition
Track condition is something unique to horse racing which plays a really, really big role in how a race plays out. Every betting site you use for horse racing betting will show you the track rating, which essentially tells you whether it’s firm, soft or heavy – firm being when conditions have been dry, soft when there has been a bit of rain and heavy when there has been a lot of rain.
This can have a massive impact on how the race is run. Some horses absolutely thrive in wet conditions and a heavier track, the better – others simply can’t compete nearly as well as they would in dry conditions. This is often for a clear reason; for example, a horse that generally runs the race at the back of the pack before coming from behind might struggle in the wet but thrive in the dry, simply because it’s harder to make up ground in wet conditions.
Other times, however, it’s a little less clear, and a horse might be a wet track specialist just because, well, they are. Regardless of the reason, betting sites will always have a horse’s record on a firm, soft and heavy track listed, and our experts always use this before making their horse racing tips.
Prep
If you’re not a horse racing fan, this does not mean quite you think it might. Prep isn’t referring purely to how a horse has prepared for a particular race. You might have seen terms like ‘1st up’, ‘2nd up’ and so on when reading our horse racing tips, phrases which essentially refer to which stage of a prep a horse is in.
Horses can’t just run race after race after race, so typically they will run in a handful of them before being sent back to the stables for a bit of time off. Their trainer will then have a program which attempts to get them as well-prepared as possible for another stint of races.
A horse that is 1st up is having its first run in this ‘prep’ – basically, their first race in a while. Often horses struggle a little 1st up, needing a race or two to get into gear, but this is not a universal truth. Some horses tend to run their best 1st up, while others might have a good record later in their prep.
This info will always be available on your betting site – both what stage of their prep a horse is in, and how they have historically performed at this stage. We will always use this information for our horse racing tips.
Distance
This is a pretty obvious one, but it might have more impact than you think and that’s why our expert horse racing tips always factor this in. Horses obviously have a preferred general distance – you won’t have the same runner in a 1,000-metre race as you do in a 2,500-metre race, for example. But even small differences in distance can be significant.
A medium-distance runner, for example, might run in predominantly 1,400-metre races and 1,600-metre races, but won’t necessarily perform equally as well in both of them. 1,400, for example, might just be a little too short for them, with other horses getting into gear more quickly, or alternatively 1,600 metres might be right on the edge of their limit and see them often tire towards the end.
Track Factors
One of the final factors we consider relates to the idiosyncracies of a track. This is not always relevant, with some tracks pretty stock standard in their shape, but others have unique elements to consider.
Take Moonee Valley in Victoria as an example. The straight at this racetrack is notoriously short, which means that it is particularly hard for backmarkers to come from the back and win as they generally have to make their move on the final bend, rather than having a long straight on which to catch up. In contrast, this benefits leaders, who only have to hang on to the lead for a shorter period of time once they round the bend.