There are a number of different things that have an impact on AFL results, and when we are AFL betting predictions, we take a look at the factors that we think are the most important. Below, we outline what some of these are.
Team Form
Whatever sport it is that you’re betting on, team form is obviously going to play a major role if you’re betting on the overall result. This can be both short and long-term – obviously the quality of the team on the whole influences their result, but taking a look at how both sides have been performing over the past week or two is also prudent when analysing a match-up.
Player Form
The form of particular players is something that we generally look into when we’re providing tips on AFL, and for a couple of reasons. For starters, the form of key players – and fringe players, for that matter – obviously has an impact on team performance, and if, for example, the Lions’ star players have all been firing on all cylinders for a few weeks, that is generally going to mean the team overall is in good form too. This impacts betting markets like moneyline and the line.
Further to that, however, player form is pivotal if you want to start diving into player props, and we love taking a look at these to see if there are any trends which could give us an edge. For example, has a particular player changed role recently, resulting in a lot more touches of the footy? If so, maybe there will be some good value odds for them to get, for example, 25 possessions – maybe they haven’t done it much in the past but have for the past two weeks running, and the value for them to do it this week is still based around how often they have historically got to that number, rather than how often they are getting there in their new role.
Match-up
The way two teams match-up is where we really get into the nitty gritty on the road to making our AFL tips this week, and rely on a lifetime of following this great game. Footy is very much a sport where the way two teams match-up against one another is important – does one team have a really strong contested midfield which is likely to overpower a smaller, inexperienced opposition?
Or maybe they have a couple of big, bustling key forwards for whom the opposition is going to struggle to find a good match-up. Taking a look at these factors can help us to get a good gauge on how a game might play out, and plays a big role in our AFL tips and predictions.
Head to Head History
Head to head history is an interesting factor, and one which different people attribute a different amount of importance to. Often there will be no major trend in matchups between two teams, but sometimes, you’ll find that one side has had the edge over another for a really long time.
Take the Kennett Curse, for example. When the Hawks surprisingly beat the Cats back in the 2008 Grand Final, Hawthorn president Jeff Kennett made a claim about his teams superior mental drive to that of Geelong which prompted the Cats leaders to swear to never again lose to Hawthorn. Of course, that did not transpire, but the Cats did go on to beat the Hawks an incredible 11 times in a row, many of them in thrilling finishes.
Clearly there was a mental component to that which transcended the individual situations of those teams. That was an extreme example, and while long-term history doesn’t necessarily influence what will happen in this weekend’s games, the Kennett Curse does show how much of sport can be decided between the ears.
Performance at Venue
Where a game is played is something which needs to be considered in every sport, and footy is no different. Obviously there are teams, particularly those outside of Victoria, who have a major advantage when they play against interstate games in their home state, and conversely tend to struggle when they have to fly elsewhere.
Even within states, however, grounds can have some impact, most notably in Victoria. Some MCG-based teams, for example, have tended to struggle at Marvel Stadium when forced to head out to the Docklands, the Tigers a notable example after former coach Damian Hardwick referenced their collective dislike of the venue a few years ago during their dynasty – a comment which would be referred back to plenty of times over the ensuing years when they struggled there.
Game Significance
This one only has an impact at certain points in the year, and it is, of course, generally factored into the odds too, so we do take that into consideration. But sometimes there are games that are simply much more significant for one team to another, and it can be hard for betting sites to quantify just how important that is.
For example, one team in a game might already be resigned to missing the finals if it’s later in the season, while the other could be fighting for a spot in the eight. Alternatively, the higher ranked team might be pretty much locked inside the top two – take the Swans in 2024, for example, who established such a significant lead at the top of the ladder in the first half of the season then fell in a heap with, realistically, probably a drop in motivation.