Here’s How the NRL Outright Winner Odds Have Shifted Already This Year

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Bren Gray
Here’s How the NRL Outright Winner Odds Have Shifted Already This Year

Five weeks into the 2024 NRL season, and already we have seen some stunning storylines unfold. Defending champions Penrith Panthers have started their title defence strong, while the Dolphins, surprisingly, have yet again defied the odds to produce a solid start.  

On the flip side, the early weeks have been nothing short of disastrous for the likes of Rabbitohs and Titans. With these shifts, we look at how outright betting odds have moved at betting sites across the opening rounds of the NRL 2024. 

News Insights

  • Gap between favourites Panthers and Broncos widens
  • Warriors and Storm outright betting odds strengthen
  • Dolphins unchanged despite strong start to 2024
  • Rabbitohs plummet from 8.50 to 34.00 in six weeks

Big Shifts in Outright Betting Odds Across Opening Six Weeks 

After six weeks, the outright winner odds in the NRL 2024 have shifted significantly. Here’s a quick overview of the changes. 

The Penrith Panthers have remained the favourites and now they have even shorter odds than they did before the season. Brisbane retain second spot, though their odds have slightly moved against them. While pre-season odds between the two favourites were 3.75 to 4.33 at bookmaker bet365, they now read 3.30 to 5.50 across most betting apps

Melbourne have leapfrogged the Rabbitohs and Roosters and are now third favourites. The Roosters still remain fourth, but the Rabbitohs’ prospects have suffered a significant hit. They are now at 34.00, which makes them 10th favourite to lift the title in the 17-team competition. Cameron Murray and company were the third favourite during preseason (8.50).  

The Dolphins still have the same odds as they did pre-season. This suggests that bookies are still sceptical of the Redcliffe outfits’ ability to sustain their current form in the long run. Gold Coast Titans are the biggest movers as their odds lengthened from the preseason 41.00 to a whopping 251.00 now. If you have seen the Titans in action this season, however, you will not be surprised by this development.  

The Dolphins: Surprise League Leaders  

The Dolphins had a below par debut season in 2023. They finished 13th and were eight points away from a finals spot. The red and golds made some high-profile moves in the market to prepare for their second season, and seemingly, they are already reaping the rewards. They have bolstered their roster with former Broncos stars Herbie Farnworth and Tom Fledger, alongside the lightning-fast Jake Averillo, who represented the Bulldogs last season.  

The Dolphins are now the league toppers after winning three of their first four matches. That said, the Dolphins will keep their expectations in check as they had a similar start to the last season as well. They won the first three matches of their 2023 campaign before losing steam.

Can they benefit from the added experience this time around and prove the bookies wrong? Only time can tell, but a strong showing against big brother Brisbane this weekend would certainly help. 

The Warriors Weather Early Storm in 2024 

The Warriors came very close to claiming their first-ever NRL title last season. They made it to the Preliminary Finals, but could not overcome the Brisbane Broncos to reach the Grand Final. Andrew Webster stepped into the new season under incredible pressure. There was the infamous second season curse to deal with and the heightened expectations among the Warriors faithful.  

The start to the new season was far from ideal. Losing two on the bounce threatened to derail the campaign early. Fair play to the Kiwis, however, as they have showed remarkable resilience to put together a three-match winning run. Now that they have steadied the ship, the Warriors will try to maintain the momentum and land a finals berth come the end of the season.  

Nightmare Continues for the Titans and Rabbitohs  

The Titans and Rabbitohs occupy the last two spots in the NRL points table at the moment. Rabbitohs did win a game in round four, but have also been on the receiving end of four disheartening defeats. The Titans, on the other hand, have played a match less than their South Sydney counterparts and lost all of them.  

Winning against Bulldogs proved to be a false dawn for the Rabbitohs as they surrendered to a 34-4 hammering against the Warriors in the very next game. The Titans failed to show fighting spirit in any of their matches, falling to the Cowboys, Dolphins, Bulldogs, and Dragons this season.

Big shifts in the outright betting odds have already occurred this season in the NRL. The Panthers have extended their lead as the favourites, while the Warriors and Storm have moved up the charts. No such luck for the Rabbitohs and Titans, however, whose odds have plummeted at bookies.