State of Origin 2025 – Betting tips & Predictions

It’s been 45 years since the first Origin battle—and in 2025, the series begins where it all began. New South Wales arrive as favourites at Suncorp, but history warns against writing off Queensland. Last year's defeat still stings for the Maroons, while the Blues brim with belief.

We'll preview this mouthwatering clash between the two perennial rivals, but to make things even sweeter, we’ll also round up the best betting apps for the best match-day deals.

Back at Suncorp for the first time since their 14-4 win in last year’s decider, the Blues are chasing another statement victory on enemy turf.

With Game 1 fast approaching, team news is having a real impact on the odds. Returning to the top job, Laurie Daley has placed his faith in the core of the 2024 side—hoping past success paves the way for a winning return. But he has made some high-profile omissions.  

NSW left out in-form prop Terrell May, which came as a surprise to many, but NSW’s forward depth and 2024 series win gave selectors room to gamble.

Another standout prop, Payne Haas, joined the camp with an injury concern, while his Broncos teammate Patrick Carrigan also looked doubtful, though his "broken jaw" turned out to be just a nasty mouth gash. Betting sites will keep an eye on their conditions for sure.

Last year’s Game 3 slip-up aside, Queensland remain a formidable force at Suncorp. With the shield up for grabs, expect a fired-up Maroons side desperate to draw first blood on home turf. 

Despite playing at home, Queensland will start as underdogs, hit hard by injuries and missing several key players. Reece Walsh is the major absentee, but in Kalyn Ponga, they have a steady replacement. Less explosive, perhaps, but more reliable.

The bigger gamble may be in the centres, where the Maroons have named Robert Toia after just 10 NRL games. With rookies like Toia and Haas set to debut, punters backing Queensland are banking on potential over experience.

Queensland’s risky picks have a habit of coming good, unlike in New South Wales, where patience runs thin after poor performances.

One major boost for Queensland in 2025 is the return of Cameron Munster and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui—two of their best performers, both of whom missed the entire 2024 series. Their presence adds real value for punters backing a Queensland upset.

The battle in the centres shapes as one of the key match-ups on the night. NSW bring the firepower of Latrell Mitchell alongside the red-hot Stephen Crichton, widely regarded as the best centre in the NRL right now.

Queensland, by contrast, pair the experienced Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow with debutant Robert Toia. The Blues appear to have the upper hand in this case since there are question marks over how quickly Toia can settle into the high-pressure Origin stage.

Another key contest lies in the halves, and again, NSW look stronger. NSW have so much depth they’ve left out Jarome Luai—one of their 2024 heroes—with Nathan Cleary returning and Mitchell Moses rewarded for his game-winning role last year.

Munster’s return is a boost for Queensland, though Tom Dearden has been solid in his absence. Daly Cherry-Evans, despite his experience, hasn’t matched the form of his counterparts and could be the Maroons' weak link.

NSW look stronger up front too—Haas gives them a major boost, and the likes of Liam Martin and Angus Crichton bring serious aggression.

Queensland’s pack is more about grit and graft, though Jeremiah Nanai offers some x-factor. If the game opens up, the Blues’ firepower might tip the balance.

Both sides show strength in their interchange options. Though Connor Watson has greater dummy-half experience, Tom Dearden’s outstanding performance in the previous series secured his inclusion for Queensland.

Laurie Daley returns as NSW coach in 2025 after a first stint (2013–2017) that saw a 40% win rate and one series win from five. With Craig Bellamy now assisting, the Blues’ coaching box looks stronger than ever.

On the Queensland side, Billy Slater starts his fourth campaign with a 5-4 record and two series wins from three. But after a poor end to 2024, Slater’s job could be on the line if the Maroons don’t turn things around this series.

Bottom line when it comes to our State of Origin predictions, it’s going to be a close one. We give the edge to NSW, but recommend the picks below as the best State of Origin bets for Game 1.

Bookmaker	Daniel’s Tip	Odds
	Over 39.5	$1.91
	NSW -2	$1.88
	Xavier Coates anytime tryscorer	$2.15

Predicted Squads

New South Wales Blues: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Brian To'o 3. Stephen Crichton 4. Latrell Mitchell 5. Zac Lomax 6. Mitchell Moses 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Mitch Barnett 9. Reece Robson 10. Payne Haas 11. Angus Crichton 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Connor Watson 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Hudson Young 17. Max King.

Queensland Maroons: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Xavier Coates 3. Robert Toia 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Valentine Holmes 6. Cameron Munster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Mo Fotuaika 9. Harry Grant 10. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui 11. Reuben Cotter 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Tom Dearden 15. Lindsay Collins 16. Beau Fermor 17. Trent Loiero.

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