AFL 2025 Round 11 – Betting tips & Predictions

Round 11 action kicks off on Thursday and there are a stack of interesting games, with some teams in a must-win situation. The Lions lost last round which has resulted in the Magpies claiming top spot on the ladder. Meanwhile, the Eagles were able to chalk up their first win of the season last time out, but they remain at the bottom of the ladder.

Who will come out a winner in Round 11? Let’s get stuck into some 2025 AFL predictions for Round 11 action!

We kick Round 11 off with a top-eight clash between the Cats and Bulldogs and what a game we are treated to! Bailey Smith is set to take on his old team and all eyes will be on the midfielder. So far this season, Smith has an average of 30.7 disposals per game and I expect he’ll be looking to pump in another good game. Expect this game to be mental just as much as it will be physical.

The Cats put the Power to the sword last time out, winning 115-39. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs did exactly the same to the Bombers, winning 127-36. Two teams coming into this in some form makes it difficult to tip a winner. The Cats will miss Patrick Dangerfield and Jack Bowes, who are major outs and the Dogs look likely to miss Arthur Jones. The last time the two teams clashed was also at GMHBA and the Dogs won by 47 points.

Bookmaker	Katherine’s Tip	Odds
	Bulldogs to win	$1.94
	To get 30+ disposals - Bailey Smith	$2.15
	To get 30+ disposals - Bailey Smith	$1.89

Predicted Squads

Geelong Cats: J.Henry, S.De Koning, C.O’Sullivan, L.Humphries, M.O’Connor, Z.Guthrie, G.Miers, M.Holmes, O.Dempsey, B.Close, S.Mannagh, T.Stengle, J.Cameron, G.Stevens, S.Neale, M.Blicavs, B.Smith, T.Atkins, J.Bews, O.Mullin, T.Stewart, O.Henry & M.Duncan

Western Bulldogs: L.Cleary, J.O’Donnell, T.Duryea, J.Johannisen, R.Lobb, B.Dale, B.Williams, E.Richards, J.Freijah, J.Harmes, B.Khamis, M.Kennedy, R.Sanders, A.Naughton, R.West, T.English, M.Bontempelli, T.Liberatore, S.Davidson, O.Baker, L.McNeil, L.Vandermeer & L.Bramble

Two teams that are sitting outside the top eight will go up against each other on Friday night when the Bombers take on the Tigers. A pitiful performance against the Bulldogs last time out resulted in a 36-127 loss for the Bombers. Meanwhile, the Tigers lost to the Kangaroos in a tight tussle, 74-78. It’s Dreamtime at the G, so expect a massive crowd, but I’m not sure if quality play will be on the cards.

We usually see the Bombers play well against the lower-graded teams and that’s what I’m expecting on Friday. The Bombers will be desperate for a win here to prove their last game was just a blip and they come into this one as the heavy favourites. I don’t like the line though and I think the Tigers are good enough to keep this one relatively close, they did have their chances last time out.

Bookmaker	Katherine’s Tip	Odds
	Tigers +18.5	$1.88
	Tigers +18.5	$1.91
	Tigers +18.5	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Essendon Bombers: A.McGrath, B.McKay, A.Roberts, M.Redman, Z.Reid, J.Prior, X.Duursma, Z.Merrett, D.Parish, A.Perkins, N.Caddy, N.Martin, K.Langford, P.Wright, I.Kako, T.Goldstein, J.Caldwell, S.Durham, J.Gresham, W.Setterfield, J.Laverde, S.El-Hawli & D.Shiel

Richmond Tigers: B.Miller, T.Sonsie, N.Vlastuin, S.Banks, T.Brown, N.Broad, K.McIntosh, S.Lalor, H.Ralphsmith, J.Ross, S.Campbell, R.Mansell, S.Green, J.Short, J.Faull, T.Nankervis, T.Taranto, J.Hopper, L.Trainor, K.McAuliffe, T.Sims, T.Dow & K.Smith

The Blues are outside the top eight, in 11th spot, meanwhile the Giants are just inside the eight. With these two teams, it’s difficult to know what we are going to get, consistency isn’t really their forte. The Blues have won three of their last five while the Giants have won one of their last five. Playing in Melbourne, the Blues have opened as the slight favourites.

Both teams have suffered serious injury blows, but I’m expecting a better game from the Blues, especially considering they are playing at home. A win here for the Blues could see them leapfrog the Giants into the top eight and that desperation could see them fight just that little bit harder for the win. Hopefully, we get some answers after this game about the form of these two teams.

Bookmaker	Katherine’s Tip	Odds
	Blues to win	$1.73
	Blues to win	$1.75
	Blues to win	$1.78

Predicted Squads

Carlton Blues: O.Hollands, J.Weitering, A.Saad, N.Haynes, M.McGovern, J.Silvagni, E.Hollands, P.Cripps, J.Binns, C.Lord, H.McKay, S.Walsh, C.Durdin, C.Curnow, J.Motlop, M.Pittonet, A.Cerra, G.Hewett, F.Evans, M.Carroll, W.White, L.Young & B.Acres

GWS Giants: C.Idun, S.Taylor, H.Himmelberg, L.Whitfield, J.Buckley, L.Ash, C.Ward, F.Callaghan, J.Wehr, X.O’Halloran, A.Cadman, D.Jones, J.Riccardi, J.Hogan, T.Greene, K.Briggs, T.Bedford, T.Green, C.Brown, S.Coniglio, J.Fonti, C.Angove & H.Thomas

On paper, this looks to be the game of the round. We see the second-placed Hawks welcome the fourth-placed Lions to the MCG. Both teams are coming off a loss last time out and will be looking to get back into the winner’s circle. The Hawks looked good in defeat last time out and while taking down the 2024 Premiers will be difficult, I think they are in with a good chance.

The Hawks look to welcome back a host of players, which is a good selection headache to have. Meanwhile, the Lions will welcome Jarrod Berry and Oscar McInerney back. While the Lions look to be the better team, the Hawks have fight and form on their side. I’ll be playing it safe for this one and taking the Hawks to win, the home advantage will come into play here.

Bookmaker	Katherine’s Tip	Odds
	Hawks to win	$1.53
	Hawks to win	$1.58
	Hawks to win	$1.55

Predicted Squads

Hawthorn Hawks: J.Impey, T.Barrass, J.Sicily, K.Amon, J.Weddle, M.D’Ambrosio, J.Ginnivan, J.Ward, H.Morrison, B.Hardwick, N.Watson, D.Moore, C.Macdonald, M.Chol, F.Maginness, L.Meek, C.Nash, J.Worpel, C.Jiath, J.Scrimshaw, J.Gunston, C.Mackenzie & B.Macdonald

Brisbane Lions: D.Zorko, J.Payne, R.Lester, N.Answerth, H.Andrews, D.Wilmot, J.Fletcher, H.McCluggage, Z.Bailey, C.Cameron, E.Hipwood, W.Ashcroft, C.Rayner, L.Morris, C.Ah Chee, O.McInerney, J.Dunkley, L.Neale, K.Lohmann, L.Ashcroft, K.Coleman, D.Gardiner & C.McKenna

The 17th-placed Kangaroos will take on the top of the table Magpies on Saturday night at Marvel Stadium. While the Magpies are clearly the better team, I don’t think this will be the blowout the bookies think. The Kangaroos have been playing well recently (by their standards). They suffered a narrow 62-65 loss to the Bombers, then took the Lions for a draw and finally managed to get a win over the Tigers last time out.

The Magpies have won four of their last five, including a 10-point victory over the Crows last time out. If this game was anything like the last time these two met, when the Magpies won by just one point, we are in for a real treat. The line is currently sitting around the 34.5 which is massive and with what the Kangaroos have been able to produce as of late, I think they can keep this one close-ish.

Bookmaker	Katherine’s Tip	Odds
	Kangaroos +34.5	$1.88
	Kangaroos +35.5	$1.91
	Kangaroos +34.5	$1.88

Predicted Squads

North Melbourne Kangaroos: C.Comben, T.Pink, A.Corr, R.Hardeman, C.Daniel, L.McDonald, D.Stephens, L.Davies-Uniacke, J.Simpkin, T.Powell, N.Larkey, C.McKercher, F.Maley, J.Darling, C.Zurhaar, T.Xerri, G.Wardlaw, H.Sheezel, F.O’Sullivan, B.Scott, L.Parker, J.Konstanty & P.Curtis

Collingwood Magpies: B.Maynard, J.Howe, D.Houston, H.Perryman, B.Frampton, I.Quaynor, L.Sullivan, N.Daicos, J.Crisp, B.McCreery, B.Mihocek, B.Hill, J.Elliott, M.Cox, T.Membrey, D.Cameron, S.Pendlebury, N.Long, J.Daicos, E.Allan, S.Sidebottom, W.Hoskin-Elliott & P.Lipinski

The Dockers will be coming into this clash very happy after heading to Western Sydney last time out to take on the Giants. It was a place they had never won before and they finally managed a victory, beating the Giants 95-61. Sean Darcy looks set to return for the Dockers as well. On the flip side, the Power have started to slip and have now lost three games in a row after an abysmal performance against the Cats.

To make things even worse they will be without Jason Horne-Francis and Lachie Jones for this game and beyond. The Dockers will be happy to be back at home again considering they don’t have the best of records on the road so far this season. The Power have won the last three games between these two teams but I think everything is pointing towards a Dockers victory here.

Bookmaker	Katherine’s Tip	Odds
	Dockers -18.5	$1.88
	Dockers -18.5	$1.91
	Dockers -18.5	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Fremantle Dockers: L.Ryan, A.Pearce, B.Cox, H.Chapman, K.Worner, J.Clark, J.Sharp, S.Bolton, M.Johnson, M.Frederick, S.Switkowski, S.Darcy, P.Voss, J.Treacy, J.Amiss, L.Jackson, C.Serong, A.Brayshaw, M.Reid, C.Wagner, N.Erasmus, C.Simpson & B.Banfield

Port Adelaide Power: T.Boak, A.Aliir, M.Bergman, C.Rozee, E.Ratugolea, R.Burton, W.Drew, O.Wines, J.Burgoyne, D.Byrne-Jones, M.Georgiades, J.Mead, S.Powell-Pepper, O.Lord, J.Richards, D.Visentini, J.McEntee, Z.Butters, J.Sinn, J.Finlayson, W.Rioli, L.Evans & C.Moraes

It was another case of “close but no cigar” for the Crows last time out, who went down to the Magpies, 68-78. Meanwhile the Eagles finally got their first win of the season! They took down the Saints, 108-80. The loss for the Crows will certainly leave a bitter taste in their mouths and they will be looking for some sweet revenge, so the Eagles could be in the wrong place at the wrong time.

The Eagles might have been able to notch up their first win, but I can’t see anything other than a blowout here. The Crows are playing at home and will want to put on a show for their fans. In the last three occasions these two teams have met, the Crows have won by 122, 45 and 99 points. So, while the line set around the 50.5 mark looks hefty, the Crows know how to dominate against this team.

Bookmaker	Katherine’s Tip	Odds
	Crows -50.5	$1.88
	Crows -50.5	$1.91
	Crows -50.5	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Adelaide Crows: J.Worrell, J.Butts, R.Laird, W.Milera, M.Keane, M.Hinge, I.Cumming, J.Dawson, L.Nankervis, B.Keays, R.Thilthorpe, J.Rachele, D.Fogarty, T.Walker, A.Neal-Bullen, R.O’Brien, I.Rankine, J.Soligo, D.Curtin, J.Peatling, M.Michalanney, Z.Taylor & S.Berry

West Coast Eagles: H.Edwards, O.Allen, L.Duggan, R.Maric, R.Ginbey, L.Baker, J.Hunt, B.Hough, J.Cripps, L.Ryan, J.Waterman, J.Graham, B.Allan, B.Williams, E.Hewett, M.Flynn, T.Kelly, H.Reid, T.Brockman, T.Cole, S.Brock, J.Hutchinson & T.Gross

Two teams sitting outside the top eight will be desperate for a win here to close the gap. The Demons and Swans will face off against each other on Sunday afternoon at the MCG. The Demons have won four of their last five games and could be looking at an unchanged line-up for the first time this season. The Swans got a much-needed victory over the Blues on the road last time out.

The Demons turned some heads last time out, beating the Lions, 99-88. That victory will boost their confidence and they are playing at home, so you would have to give the edge to the Demons. Both teams will be looking for consistency and a win here will do a lot to help their chances for a top-eight finish come September. The Swans are the favourites, but there has been a bit of money coming in for the Demons.

Bookmaker	Katherine’s Tip	Odds
	Demons to win	$1.97
	Demons to win	$2.02
	Demons to win	$2.00

Predicted Squads

Melbourne Demons: J.Bowey, S.May, C.Salem, J.McVee, T.McDonald, T.Rivers, C.Windsor, C.Petracca, E.Langdon, H.Sharp, H.Petty, T.Sparrow, C.Spargo, J.Melksham, K.Pickett, M.Gawn, C.Oliver, H.Langford, D.Turner, X.Lindsay, K.Chandler, A.Johnson & B.Fritsch

Sydney Swans: S.Wicks, T.McCartin, M.Roberts, J.Jordon, N.Blakey, D.Rampe, A.Sheldrick, I.Heeney, J.Lloyd, B.Campbell, J.Amartey, J.McInerney, W.Hayward, C.Mills, C.Cleary, B.Grundy, Ch.Warner, J.Rowbottom, J.Hamling, Co.Warner, P.Ladhams, R.Bice & O.Florent 

upporting the Saints is certainly no easy task and considering they are the first team to go down to the Eagles this season, it gets a little bit more difficult. In the last game of the round, they welcome the Suns to Marvel Stadium. The Suns, who are sitting in third place, will be looking to build on their current two-game winning streak against the Bulldogs and Hawks.

The Suns are clearly the form team and they have beaten quality teams as of late, so it’s easy to see why they are coming into this clash as the favourites. Confidence will be at an all-time low for the Saints and I think the Suns are a good enough team to capitalise easily. The Saints have dominated this matchup in the past, but it looks like the tide is changing in 2025.

Bookmaker	Katherine’s Tip	Odds
	Suns -12.5	$1.88
	Suns -11.5	$1.91
	Suns -11.5	$1.88

Predicted Squads

St Kilda Saints: A.McLennan, C.Wilkie, J.Webster, M.Windhager, N.Wanganeen-Milera, R.Byrnes, B.Hill, J.Sinclair, M.Wood, M.Hall, D.Wilson, M.Owens, C.Sharman, A.Caminiti, J.Higgins, R.Marshall, H.Boxshall, J.Steele, H.Clark, M.Phillipou, H.Garcia, L.O’Connell & T.Travaglia 

Gold Coast Suns: M.Andrew, B.Uwland, S.Collins, J.Noble, W.Powell, D.Rioli, S.Clohesy, M.Rowell, B.Fiorini, B.Ainsworth, T.Miller, S.Flanders, B.Long, J.Walter, B.King, J.Witts, B.Humphrey, N.Anderson, N.Holman, N.Moyle, J.Jeffrey, M.Rosas & D.Swallow

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