State of Origin 2023– Betting tips & Predictions

 Daniel Berson
By:
Daniel Berson
16/06/2023
State of Origin Predictions
State of Origin 2023

State of Origin game 3 is here! Queensland have already won the series, winning the first 2 games, but will now look to make it a clean sweep away from home. Will the new debutans of New South Wales be enough to secure a victory at home or will the Maroons emerge triumphant once again? Stay tuned to get our expert opinion and tips on game 3 of State of Origin.

State of Origin Series

FixturesInfo (AEST)Home OddsAway Odds
Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues - Game 1Adelaide Oval, Wednesday 31st May 8.05pm$1.65$2.25
Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues - Game 2Suncorp Stadium, Wednesday 21st June 8.05pm$1.44$2.80
Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues – Game 3Accor Stadium, Wednesday 12th July 8.05pm$2.30$1.62

Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues – Game 1

State of Origin is finally here and what a game it should be! Origin is always a highlight of the Rugby League year and this one should be no different. Game 1 is our only game at a neutral venue making it all the more crucial. New South Wales will be looking for revenge after being embarrassed as a heavy favourite last year and are once again favourites at 1.65 to win the series.

The Blues really shine through their backs, packed with firepower including James Tedesco, Tom Trbojevic and Latrell Mitchell. While the Queensland backs aren’t as strong, their experience in Munster, DCE and Hunt along with their forwards will make this an enticing contest. NSW have elected to debut Korisau over the veteran Cook and I think it’ll pay off, as he has been offering more in attack this year. While Queensland always rise to the occasion, I think the center pairing of Tom Trbojevic and Latrell Mitchell will overwhelm Queensland just as they did in 2021, where they combined for 8 tries over the 3-game series. 

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Bet365 LogoTom Trbojevic to score$2.90
TopSport LogoLatrell Mitchell to score$2.68
Unibet LogoNew South Wales -1.5$1.73

Predicted Squads

QLD: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Selwyn Cobbo 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Cameron Munster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Thomas Flegler 9. Ben Hunt 10. Lindsay Collins 11. David Fifita 12. Tom Gilbert 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Harry Grant 15. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 16. Reuben Cotter 17. Jai Arrow

NSW: 1. James Tedesco 2. Brian To’o 3. Latrell Mitchell 4. Tom Trbojevic 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Tevita Pangai Junior 9. Api Korisau 10. Payne Haas 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Hudson Young 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Junior Paulo 15. Cameron Murray 16. Liam Martin 17. Nicho Hynes

Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues - Game 2

State of Origin game 2 is almost here as we head over to Suncorp Stadium. Queensland came out in game 1 absolutely firing, upsetting the favourites NSW 26-18, scoring 2 tries in the last 10 minutes, with a player in the sin bin! Things have gone from bad to worse for NSW as Nathan Cleary, Latrell Mitchell and Api Korisau are all out of game 2 injured. Fittler has controversially decided to axe Nicho Hynes who has been struggling the past couple weeks for inform halfback Mitchell Moses, while Cook comes in to replace Korisau and Crichton once again gets the nod to replace Latrell Mitchell. Along with these changes, Utoikamanu and Robson are both set to make their debut off the bench. Queensland name a relatively unchanged side as expected after a great win, with Nanai, Coates and Fotuaika replacing the injured Gilbert, Cobbo and Arrow.

While things look dire for NSW, the one advantage they have going into this game is the lack of expectations. NSW were expected to easily win game 1, but with their injuries, and the fact they are playing away, they are now heavy underdogs. This should lift a weight off their shoulders and allow them to play to their strengths. While I think Queensland will likely be too good, having a 23-9 record at Suncorp, I think there is some value to be found on this game. NSW will fight tooth and nail to stay alive and I expect this game to be far less open than last game, it should be a more typical Origin defensive affair. I also expect James Tedesco to step up, with some value to be found in his running metre markets, averaging 281m last series and 225m the year before, already running for the most metres in game 1 despite a terrible performance.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Bet365 LogoQld to score 3 unanswered tries - No$1.85
TopSport LogoJames Tedesco most Metres NSW$2.50
Unibet LogoNeither Team to Reach 25 Points$1.66

Predicted Squads

QLD: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Xavier Coates 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Cameron Munster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Lindsay Collins 9. Ben Hunt 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 11. David Fifita 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Harry Grant 15. Thomas Flegler 16. Reuben Cotter 17. Moeaki Fotuaika

NSW: 1. James Tedesco 2. Brian To’o 3. Stephen Crichton 4. Tom Trbojevic 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Jarome Luai 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Junior Paulo 9. Damien Cook 10. Payne Haas 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Hudson Young 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Stephano Utoikamanu 15. Cameron Murray 16. Liam Martin 17. Reece Robson

Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blue

State of Origin game 3 is days away and although it is a dead rubber there is a lot to be excited about! The Blues were absolutely embarrassed at home, losing 32-6 to the Maroons despite being favourites. Despite the score line, the Blues completed well, had more of the ball and in more threatening areas, however, were completely unable to get anything going in attack, never really looking threatening. To fix this attack, Fittler has decided to bring in Cody Walker into the number 6 jersey, while Best takes the vacant left center spot left by Trbojevic as well as a couple changes to the forward pack.

What worries me most for NSW is their inability to attack. Tedesco while running for the most meters in the series, is yet to score or create a try and he hasn’t even contributed to a linebreak, very unlike Tedesco. With his absence, combined with Cleary and Latrell’s injuries, this Blues side lack firepower going forward. Additionally, Payne Haas, undoubtedly the Blues best player in game 1 is also missing through injury, making them not at full strength across the park.

For Queensland, it should be business as usual, with no major changes besides at fullback, where Brimson slots in for the suspended Walsh. Queensland have an unmatched ability to hold on in close games and strike at the crucial moment. QLD are already 2-0 up in this series and this is the first game I would say they have the better side on paper. A win will still be a tough ask away from home but if anyone can get it done, it’s this Maroons side,  built on hard work and passion for their State.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Bet365 LogoNSW total points – Under 16.5$2.05
TopSport LogoUnder 41.5$1.80
Unibet LogoTime of first try – 8 minutes or later$1.61

Predicted Squads:

QLD: 1. AJ Brimson 2. Xavier Coates 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Cameron Munster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Reuben Cotter 9. Harry Grant 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 11. David Fifita 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Ben Hunt 15. Lindsay Collins 16. Moeaki Fotuaika 17. Corey Horsburgh

NSW: 1. James Tedesco 2. Brian To’o 3. Stephen Crichton 4. Bradman Best 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Cody Walker 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Jake Trbojevic 9. Damien Cook 10. Reagan Campbell-Fillard 11. Liam Martin 12. Keaon Koloamatangi 13. Cameron Murray 14. Isaah Yeo 15. Daniel Saifiti 16. Reece Robson 17. Clint Gutherson

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