NRL 2023 Round 17 – Betting tips & Predictions

 Daniel Berson
By:
Daniel Berson
21/03/2023
NRL
NRL 2023 Round 17

Round 16 is in the books and what an interesting round it was! The Cowboys edged the Panthers in golden point thanks to one of the tries of the season from Drinkwater while the Eels showed they were up to the task without Moses and Brown, thrashing the Sea Eagles. Now onto round 17, where the big question is who will back up from Origin? We are here to help answer your questions and find value across all 7 games this week.

Round 17 Fixtures

FixturesInfo (AEST)Home OddsAway Odds
Dragons vs WarriorsFriday, 23rd June 8pm$2.45$1.56
Dolphins vs EelsSaturday, 24th June 3pm$2.50$1.54
Panthers vs KnightsSaturday, 24th June 5:30pm$1.28$3.75
Storm vs Sea EaglesSaturday, 24th June 7:35pm$1.33$3.35
Broncos vs TitansSunday, 25th June 2pm$1.35$3.25
Rabbitohs vs CowboysSunday, 25th June 4:05pm$1.38$3.10
Roosters vs RaidersSunday, 25th June 6:15pm$1.60$2.35

Dragons vs Warriors

Kicking off the round we have the Dragons hosting the Warriors. Both sides are coming off the bye and should be well rested, with the only player playing Origin being Ben Hunt. The Warriors have been the far better side this year, sitting in 6th spot thanks to a resurgent year from Shaun Johnson. The Dragons on the other hand sit in 15th spot, almost losing a 22-point lead last game, conceding 3 tries in the last 4 minutes. 

The Warriors have been surprisingly good away this season, already beating the Sharks, Cowboys and Raiders amongst others. I think they are the far better side here, combined with the Dragons being distracted from the news of Ben Hunt wanting a release from the club. I can’t go past the inform Warriors.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoHalftime/Fulltime Double – Warriors/Warriors$2.05
TopSport logoWarriors to win$1.53
Bet365 LogoWarriors -4.5$1.95

Predicted Squads

St. George Illawarra DragonsDragons: 1. Tyrell Sloan 2. Mat Feagai 3. Moses Suli 4. Zac Lomax 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Jayden Sullivan 7. Ben Hunt 8. Francis Molo 9. Jacob Liddle 10. Michael Molo 11. Jack Bird 12. Jaydn Su'A 13. Jack De Belin 14. Talatau Amone 15. Ben Murdoch-Masila 16. Blake Lawrie 17. Zane Musgrove

New Zealand WarriorsWarriors: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Marcelo Montoya 4. Adam Pompey 5. Edward Kosi 6. Luke Metcalf 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Bunty Afoa 11. Jackson Ford 12. Marata Niukore 13. Tohu Harris 14. Bayley Sironen 15. Josh Curran 16. Mitch Barnett 17. Tom Ale

Dolphins vs Eels

Kicking off Super Saturday, we have the Dolphins hosting the Eels. The Dolphins are coming off the bye, with their previous performance being an embarrassing 58-18 loss to Manly, while the Eels are coming off an emphatic 34-4 win over Manly, with both sides missing their star players. Both sides sit on 18 points on the ladder, right in contention for the top 8 and will see this game as a must win. The Eels are coming into this one in great form, winning their last 4 games, with Moses and Gutherson really finding their form. The Dolphins have lost 2 on the trot, and the honeymoon start to the season is beginning to fade away.

While the Eels do have Moses and Paulo playing Origin, I expect both to back up and play on Saturday. The Dolphins will be welcoming back Kaufusi but are still without forwards Gilbert and Wallace, with hooker Marshall-King also likely out. While the Dolphins have proved the doubters wrong time and time again, I think this Eels side will be desperate for Finals Footy and should win this one.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoEels to win$1.53
TopSport logoEels -5.5$1.87
Bet365 LogoHalftime/Fulltime Double – Eels/Eels$1.95

Predicted Squads

DolphinsDolphins: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Euan Aitken 4. Valynce Te Whare 5. Tesi Niu 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Kurt Donoghoe 10. Felise Kaufusi 11. Kenny Bromwich 12. Connelly Lemuelu 13. Ray Stone 14. Herman Ese’ese 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Max Plath 17. Poasa Faamusili

Parramatta EelsEels: 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Will Penisini 4. Bailey Simonsson 5. Sean Russell 6. Daejarn Asi 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Brendan Hands 10. Junior Paulo 11. Bryce Cartwright 12. Andrew Davey 13. J’maine Hopgood 14. Ryan Matterson 15. Ofahiki Ogden 16. Joe Ofahengaue 17. Makahesi Makatoa

Panthers vs Knights

Our second game of Super Saturday sees the Panthers hosting the Knights. The Panthers are coming off a brutal 88-minute game in which they lost in golden point, while the Knights are coming off a tough 2-point loss to the Roosters. The Panthers are majorly impacted by Origin, with Luai, To’o, Crichton, Yeo and Martin all playing. While most of them should back up, with the Panthers sitting in 2nd position on the ladder it would not surprise me to see 1 or 2 rested. The Knights only miss Frizell to Origin and are likely welcoming back Saifiti and potentially Marzhew to the side.

While the Panthers are the better outfit, without Cleary and potentially a couple of other Origin stars, I can see the Knights putting up a fight. Kalyn Ponga is playing some of his best footy back at fullback and the Knights look like a new side. While the Panthers should get the win here, I think the Knights can keep it competitive. 

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoPanthers 1-12$3.00
TopSport logoKnights +10.5$1.87
Bet365 LogoKnights +12.5$1.75

Predicted Squads

Penrith PanthersPanthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Brian To’o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Jack Cogger 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Zac Hosking 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Soni Luke 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Spencer Leniu 17. Jaeom Salmon 

Newcastle KnightsKnights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Dominic Young 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Tyson Gamble 7. Jackson Hastings 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 13. Adam Elliot 14. Kurt Mann 15. Jacob Saifiti 16. Mat Croker 17. Jack Hetherington

Storm vs Sea Eagles

Ending off Super Saturday we have the Storm hosting the Sea Eagles. The Storm are coming off an impressive 28-6 victory, away to the Tigers without Munster, Grant, Katoa, Olam, Welch or Coates. The Sea Eagles had a week to forget, missing their Origin stars deeply, losing 34-4 to an Origin impacted Eels. The Storm have really kicked into gear, going quietly about their business, winning 7 of their last 10 to sit in 3rd spot. The Sea Ealges have been extremely inconsistent, slipping down to 12th spot. Despite all of Melbourne’s outs last week, all are expected to play this week apart from Katoa, which is a massive boost foe the Storm. The real question this week is will Tom Trbojevic play?

This question really depends on how things go on Wednesday night but with Tom’s history record I would not be surprised to see him rested. Tom is one of the most fragile yet valuable players in the league and you’d think Manly wouldn’t play him unless he’s 100% good to go. I am willing to take the early risk here and think the Melbourne line will creep out further if he’s ruled out but watch out because this one can definitely wait until further news.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoHalftime/Fulltime Double – Storm/Storm$1.72
TopSport logoStorm -9.5$1.87
Bet365 LogoStorm to trail in the match - No$2.75

Predicted Squads

Melbourne StormStorm: 1. Nick Meaney 2. Will Warbrick 3. Justin Olam 4. Justin Olam 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Tui Kamikamica 9. Harry Grant 10. Christian Welch 11. Trent Loiero 12. Eli Katoa 13. Josh King 14. Bronson Garlick 15. Aaron Pene 16. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 17. Tariq Sims

Manly Warringah Sea EaglesSea Eagles: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Tolutau Koula 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Christian Tuipulotu 6. Josh Schuster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Toafofoa Sipley 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Samuela Fainu 13. Sean Keppie 14. Karl Lawton 15. Josh Aloiai 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Benjamin Condon

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Broncos vs Titans

Kicking off a 3 game Sunday Ticket, we have the Broncos hosting the Titans. Both sides are coming off the bye last week, with the 2 competition points sending the Broncos into top spot while the Titans sit in 9th spot, well in contention for Finals. Both sides are heavily impacted by Origin with the Broncos having Walsh, Carrigan, Flegler and Haas all playing while the Titans have forward trio Fa’asuamaleaui, Fifita and Fotuaika playing. The big difference comes in the ability to back up, with all of the mentioned Broncos players backing up after game 1 playing significant minutes, while Tino and Fifita played off the bench, with Fifita playing just 33 minutes. 

While on paper it looks like the Broncos are the more impacted side, their ability to back up looks significantly better. With the Broncos playing at home, with Ezra Mam and Reynolds in the form they are in, I can’t go past this Brisbane team.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoBroncos 1st Scoring Team$1.58
TopSport logoBroncos -9.5$1.87
Bet365 LogoBroncos -4.5 First Half$1.95

Predicted Squads

Brisbane BroncosBroncos: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Corey Oates 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Selwyn Cobbo 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Thomas Flegler 9. Billy Walters 10. Payne Haas 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Jordan Riki 13. Pat Carrigan 14. Cory Paix 15. Brendan Piakua 16. Kobe Hetherington 17. Martin Tapau

Gold Coast TitansTitans: 1. AJ Brimson 2. Alofiano Khan-Pereira 3. Brian Kelly 4. Aaron Schoupp 5. Phillip Sami 6. Jayden Campbell 7. Tanah Boyd 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Sam Verills 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 11. Klese Haas 12. Joe Stimson 13. Isaac Liu 14. Kruise Leeming 15. Erin Clark 16. Jaimin Jolliffe 17. David Fifita

Rabbitohs vs Cowboys

Our second game on Sunday sees the Rabbitohs host the Cowboys. The Rabbitohs had a bye last week while the Cowboys showed guts to beat the Panthers in Golden Point thanks to some Drinkwater magic. The Rabbitohs come into this game sitting in 4th spot while the Cowboys have won 2 in a row, moving them to 13th spot, just 1 win outside of finals. The Rabbitohs have Cook playing Origin while the Cowboys have Nanai, Cotter, Robson, Taulag and Holmes playing. I expect most to backup but with the Cows excessive number of players playing Origin, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 1 or 2 rested.

The Rabbitohs have been depleted lately, losing Mitchell, Walker, Murray and Arrow in recent weeks, yet showed resilience almost beating the Dragons in their last game and winning the week before without Latrell. I am expecting Mitchell, Walker and Murray all to be playing this week which would be a massive boost to the already impressive Rabbitohs. Fully fit they are arguably the team to beat this year and if their stars are back this week, I think they should take this one comfortably.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoRabbitohs -3.5 First Half$1.80
TopSport logoRabbitohs -7.5$1.87
Bet365 LogoHalftime/Fulltime – Rabbitohs-Rabbitohs$1.77

Predicted Squads

South Sydney RabbitohsRabbitohs: 1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Alex Johnston 3. Isaiah Tass 4. Campbell Graham 5. Richard Kennar 6. Cody Walker 7. Lachlan Ilias 8. Tevita Tatola 9. Damien Cook 10. Hame Sele 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Jacob Host 13. Cameron Murray 14. Jed Cartwright 15. Michael Chee Kam 16. Siliva Havili 17. Daniel Suluka-Fifita

North Queensland CowboysCowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Murray Taulagi 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Peta Hiku 5. Semi Valemei 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Reuben Cotter 9. Reece Robson 10. Coen Hess 11. Heilum Luki 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Jason Taumalolo 14. Jake Granville 15. Luciano Leilua 16. Griffin Neame 17. Jordan Mclean

Roosters vs Raiders

Our final game of the week sees the Roosters hosting the Raiders. The Roosters bounced back last week, getting a much needed 2-point win against the Knights while the Raiders had the bye. Both sides sit right around the top 8, making this a crucial game. The Roosters have Tedesco and Collins playing Origin, while the Raiders only have Young playing, but all 3 should back up. The Roosters could be welcoming back Sam Walker this week, with Radley returning from suspension, both big additions. The Raiders should be pretty much at full strength.

With both team’s seasons on the line, I expect this to be an extremely hard-fought game. Both these sides are relatively evenly matched, with the Roosters slightly better on paper at home but the Raiders playing better footy this year. I expect both sides to come out firing here in what should be a very close game.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoEither team by 6 or less$2.80
TopSport logoRaiders +4.5$1.80
Bet365 LogoEither team to win by 1-12$1.75

Predicted Squads

Sydney RoostersRoosters: 1. Jamed Tedesco 2. Junior Pauga 3. Corey Allan 4. Billy Smith 5. Daniel Tupou 6. Joey Manu 7. Sandon Smith 8. Nat Butcher 9. Jake Turpin 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Egan Butcher 12. Sitili Tupouniua 13. Victory Radley 14.  15. Nathan Brown 16. Angus Crichton 17. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves

Canberra RaidersRaiders: 1. Sebastian Kris 2. Albert Hopoate 3. Jared Croker 4. Matthew Timoko 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Jack Wighton 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papalii 9. Zac Woolford 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Ellot Whitehead 13. Corey Horsburgh 14. Tom Starling 15. Emre Guler 16. Nick Cotric 17. Pasami Saulo

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