NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Apr 17

We’ve got two loser-goes-home play-in matchups today with the Bulls taking on the Heat and Sacramento hosting Dallas. Chicago's strong history against the spread leads us to backing them to cover while we also look towards both teams’ recent history of hitting overs to continue. In the West, Dallas’ poor play as of late has us leaning towards a Kings victory.

Bulls -1.5 | $1.90 @ Betfocus

Chicago and Miami will face off in the first of the two nine vs. ten play-in game matchups. NBA betting sites have the home team Bulls hovering around 1.5 point favourites. It’s a line that makes sense as it’s a very tight matchup on paper, but the numbers significantly lean towards the Bulls. They’re the much hotter team coming in as Chicago has won six of their last seven while Miami is just three and four in that span. As well, on the season Chicago covers at a rate of 53.8% - good for seventh in the NBA. Miami is at the opposite end of that list, ranked eighth last in the league ATS. With all this in mind, we like the Bulls to cover -1.5.

Total Points O219.5 | $1.88 @ PlayUp

Going back to the Chicago vs. Miami matchup, we’re looking towards the over. On the season, both teams sit around the middle of the league in percentage of overs hit. As of late however, it’s been a different story. Miami has abandoned defense late in the season and as such they’ve gone over the point total in five straight games. Although Chicago hasn’t had quite the same numbers the over has still hit in three of their past five. As well, the history between the two sides points towards the over as in each of their past five matchups the total has been 220+ points. We know playoffs tend to bring stiffer defense, but the analytics tell us that over 219.5 is the right pick.

Kings ML | $1.52 @ Betright

In the Western Conference nine vs. ten matchup, Dallas is travelling to Sacramento to take on the Kings. The Mavericks have limped into the play-in, having lost four of their past five. The Kings have been playing much better as of late, with a 4-2 record in their last six. The head-to-head history favours the Kings as well as they’ve beaten Dallas in three straight and five of their past seven overall. Factor in Anthony Davis’ nagging groin injury which is holding him back from being 100% healthy and the Kings ML is what we’re riding with.