We are one month into the NRL season and what a season it is shaping up to be! Round 4 had some stand-out moments with the grand final rematch living up to the hype, as well as the awe-inspiring return of the 2022 Dally M medallist Nicho Hynes. Round 5 should be just as exciting, filled with mouth-watering matchups and teams being slept on. I am here to help you find all the value across the NRL this week.
NRL 2023 Round 5
Roosters vs Eels
What a game to start the round. The Roosters will face off against the Eels at Allianz stadium on Thursday night. The Eels are coming off a massive golden-point win, taking down the back-to-back premiers. It truly was an impressive performance, with Paramatta boasting a completion rate of 95%, which gave Penrith little to no chance. On the flip side, the Roosters are coming off the bye with their previous performance being a gutsy win against their rivals South Sydney.
While the Roosters are fresh off the bye, with the home ground advantage, I see this being a tight affair. Both sides are missing key players with Joey Manu suspended for the Roosters and Junior Paulo likely suspended for the Eels. This should be a tight game with great defence.
| Bookmaker | Daniel’s Tip | Odds |
 | Tri-Bet, Either Team by 6 or less | $2.80 |
 | Paramatta Eels +5.5 | $1.87 |
 | Under 39.5 | $1.97 |
Predicted Squads
Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Joseph Suaalii 4. Drew Hutchison 5. Jaxson Paulo 6. Luke Keary 7. Sam Walker 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Brandon Smith 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Egan Butcher 12. Nat Butcher 13. Victor Radley 14. Jake Turpin 15. Terrell May 16. Fletcher Baker 17. Naufahu Whyt
Eels: 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Will Penisini 4. Waqa Blake 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Makahesi Makatoa 11. Bryce Cartwright 12. Ryan Matterson 13. J’maine Hopgood 14. Matt Doorey 15. Brendan Hands 16. Wiremu Greig 17. Jirah Momoisea
Raiders vs Panthers
Our early Friday night game sees the Raiders taking on the Panthers at GIO stadium. Both sides are coming off disappointing results, with the Panthers falling short to the Eels despite Cleary’s last-minute heroics, while the Raiders lost to a weakened Knights. Both sides will be looking to make amends for last week’s results.
The Panthers are likely going to have Liam Martin returning, bolstering their forward pack, however, they will be missing their bench hooker Soni Luke who will be out due to concussion protocols. The Panthers have won their last 4 games against the Raiders and I can’t see this one being any different. The Panthers currently sit at an ugly 1-2 and certainly have a big point to prove.
| Bookmaker | Daniel’s Tip | Odds |
| Panthers -5.5 first half | $1.87 |
| Panthers -11.5 | $1.87 |
| Penrith Panthers to win both halves | $2.15 |
Predicted Squads
Raiders: 1. Sebastian Kris 2. James Schiller 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Harley Smith-Shields 5. Albert Hopoate 6. Jack Wighton 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papalii 9. Zac Woolford 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Corey Harawira-Naera 14. Tom Starling 15. Pasami Saulo 16. Corey Horsburgh 17. Emre Guler
Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Brian To'o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Zac Hosking 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Luke Garner 15. Scott Sorensen 16. Spencer Leniu 17. Jaeman Salmon
Rabbitohs vs Storm
What an absolute game we have to usher in the weekend. The Rabbitohs welcome the Storm to Accor stadium in what is almost guaranteed to be a great game of footy. Both sides got important wins last week to take each of them to a level 2-2 record. Both sides are slightly depleted going into this clash, with the Rabbitohs continuing to miss star forwards Jai Arrow and Tatola, while the Storm are once again without Jahrome Hughes who is serving out a suspension.
While both sides haven’t looked their best, the Rabbitoh’s results have been deceiving, playing 4 top contenders in each of their first 4 games. I think the Rabbitohs power game, combined with the attacking flair of Cook, Walker and Latrell should be enough for them to get over the line in what is bound to be a great game.
| Bookmaker | Daniel’s Tip | Odds |
| Rabbitohs to win | $1.55 |
| Rabbitohs -4.5 | $1.87 |
| Over 41.5 total points | $1.91 |
Predicted Squads
Rabbitohs: 1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Alex Johnston 3. Isaiah Tass 4. Campbell Graham 5. Izaac Thompson 6. Cody Walker 7. Lachlan Ilias 8. Daniel Suluka-Fifita 9. Damien Cook 10. Thomas Burgess 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Jacob Host 13. Cameron Murray 14. Blake Taaffe 15. Michael Chee Kam 16. Davvy Moale 17. Jed Cartwright
Storm: 1. Nick Meaney 2. Will Warbrick 3. Reimis Smith 4. Justin Olam 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jonah Pezet 8. Tui Kamikamica 9. Harry Grant 10. Christian Welch 11. Trent Loiero 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Josh King 14. Tyran Wishart 15. Alec MacDonald 16. Tariq Sims 17. Bronson Garlick
Sea Eagles vs Knights
This week, Super Saturday is back to its normal schedule with three games, kicking off with Manly vs Newcastle. Manly are coming off a brutal 1 point to the Rabbitohs, whereas the Knights put on a clinic vs the Raiders. There are few in our beloved game more feared than Tom Trbojevic, and I think he is going to have a field day on Saturday. The weather is forecast to be dry and I can see lots of early shifts from Manly, who look to be a free flowing attacking side.
Manly have lost Koula to injury but will likely replace him with the experienced Morgan Harper, while the Knights are still missing Jacob Saifiti, Kalyn Ponga as well as Kurt Mann due to a head knock suffered on the weekend. I can see this being a long and miserable afternoon for Knights fans.
| Bookmaker | Daniel’s Tip | Odds |
| Manly to win both halve | $1.87 |
| Sea Eagles -14.5 | $1.87 |
| Over 43.5 total points | $1.85 |
Predicted Squads
Sea Eagles: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Christian Tuipulotu 3. Brad Parker 4. Morgan Harper 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Josh Schuster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Jake Trbojevic 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Kelma Tuilagi 13. Josh Aloiai 14. Kaeo Weekes 15. Ben Trbojevic 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Sean Keppie
Knights: 1. Lachlan Miller 2. Hymel Hunt 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Tyson Gamble 7. Jackson Hastings 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 13. Phoenix Crossland 14. Brodie Jones 15. Jack Hetherington 16. Mat Croker 17. Jack Johns
Dragons vs Dolphins
We end off Saturday night with the high-flying Dolphins visiting a desperate Dragons. The Dolphins may have lost to the Broncos last week, but I’d argue the performance they put up only increased their stock. On the other hand, it was a night to forget for Dragons fans, losing 40-8 at home, in a derby.
Some may be confused as to why the Dragons are favourites here, but this is due to the heavy price the Dolphins paid last week. They lost key men Tesi Niu and Sean O’Sullivan, not to mention that they are still without Felise Kaufusi. The Dolhpins are going to be forced into a new halves partnership of Katoa and Milford, who are both dynamic ball runners but could leave them lacking a bit of control over the game. The Dragons will certainly be looking to bounce back, while the Dolphins have the tough task of keeping their energy levels as high as they have been for the opening 4 rounds.
| Bookmaker | Daniel’s Tip | Odds |
| Dragons 1-12 | $3.10 |
| Dragons to win | $1.80 |
| Either team by 1-12 | $1.72 |
Predicted Squads
The Dolphins: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Euan Aitken 4. Brenko Lee 5. Edrick Lee 6. Isaiya Katoa 7. Anthony Milford 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Jeremy Marhsall-King 10. Poasa Faamausili 11. Kenny Bromwich 12. Connelly Lemuelu 13. Tom Gilbert 14. Jarrod Wallace 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Ray Stone 17. Kodi Nikorima
Dragons: 1. Tyrell Sloan 2. Mathew Feagai 3. Moses Suli 4. Zac Lomax 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Jayden Sullivan 7. Ben Hunt 8. Jack De Belin 9. Moses Mbye 10. Blake Lawrie 11. Ben Murdoch-Masila 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Jack Bird 14. Jacob Liddle 15. Zane Musgrove 16. Francis Molo 17. Josh Kerr
Broncos vs Tigers
Rounding out Saturday we have a David vs Goliath matchup. The undefeated Broncos who sit on top of the ladder, take on the winless Tigers who sit at the bottom. While the Broncos have gotten off to the perfect start, their performance last week against the Dolphins wasn’t so convincing, relying on 2 late tries to win. On the flip side, the winless Tigers have been relatively competitive in their games, losing all 4 games by a combined margin of 30 (less than the Dragons margin last week alone).
The Tigers have struggled in attack but having 3 different fullbacks in the first 4 rounds has certainly not helped. Hopefully Tim Sheens has found his main man in Adam Doueihi and the team can start to form some combinations. While the Broncos are certainly the better side here, I can see the Tigers keeping this one closer than the odds suggest.
| Bookmaker | Daniel’s Tip | Odds |
| Brisbane Broncos 1-12 | $3.30 |
| Tigers +15.5 | $1.87 |
| Tigers to win either half | $2.55 |
Predicted Squads
Broncos: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Jesse Arthars 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Selwyn Cobbo 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Thomas Flegler 9. Billy Walters 10. Payne Haas 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Cory Paix 15. Keenan Palasia 16. Corey Jensen 17. Martin Taupau
Tigers: 1. Adam Doueihi 2. Charlie Staines 3. Brent Naden 4. Asu Kepaoa 5. Junior Tupou 6. Brandon Wakeham 7. Luke Brooks 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Api Koroisau 10. David Klemmer 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. John Bateman 13.. Fonua Pole 14. Daine Laurie 15. Alex Twal 16. Shawn Blore 17. Alex Seyfarth
Sharks vs Warriors
Kicking off our Sunday we have the Sharks hosting the Warriors. The Sharks are coming off an impressive 32-point win in what has otherwise been an extremely close season. The sudden up-tick in form can be put down to the 2022 Dally M medallist Nicho Hynes, grabbing 4 try assists and 7-line break assists. If he continues to put numbers anywhere remotely similar to that, he’s a shoe in for the award again. The Warriors also put up an impressive performance, edging the Bulldogs in a tight affair.
While the Sharks are now back to full fitness, the Warriors are likely to be missing star forward Tohu Harris. The Warriors will certainly miss Harris’ ball playing, which has helped Shaun Johnson shine this year. I see the Sharks continuing their form, being too classy for an improved Warriors side.
| Bookmaker | Daniel’s Tip | Odds |
| Half Time /Full Time Double Cronulla/Cronulla | $1.72 |
| Sharks -10.5 | $1.87 |
| Sharks -5.5 first half | $1.77 |
Predicted Squads
Sharks: 1. Will Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Siosifa Talakai 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Matt Moylan 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Toby Rudolf 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Braden Hamlin-Uele 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Dale Finucane 14. Cameron McInnes 15. Royce Hunt 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Braydon Trindall
Warriors: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Edward Kosi 3. Viliami Vailea 4. Adam Pompey 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Te Maire Martin 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Bunty Afoa 11. Jackson Ford 12. Marata Niukore 13. Mitch Barnett 14. Dylan Walker 15. Bailey Sironen 16. Jazz Tevaga 17. Tom Ale
Bulldogs vs Cowboys
Wrapping up the round we have an enticing encounter, with the Bulldogs hosting the Cowboys. Both teams are holding a 2-2 record, with the Bulldogs coming off a harsh loss to the Warriors, whereas the Cowboys got a much-needed win over cross state rivals, the Titans. The Bookies have this one as a pretty close game, but I think the Bulldogs are the far fitter and fresher side going into this encounter.
Whilst the Bulldogs did lose Fa'amanu Brown to an elbow injury, they are likely to be welcoming back their star enforcer, Tevita Pangai Junior. On the other hand, it has only gone from bad to worse for the Cowboys on the injury front. The Cows who are already missing key players Drinkwater and Cotter are now also likely missing James Tamou, Jeremiah Nanai, Murray Taulagi and Gehamat Shibasaki. While fully fit I do believe the Cowboys are the better side, I can’t see why they’re favourites with the injury crisis they have.
| Bookmaker | Daniel’s Tip | Odds |
| Bulldogs 13+ | $5 |
| Bulldogs +1 | $1.87 |
| Bulldogs to win | $2.00 |
Predicted Squads
Bulldogs: 1. Hayze Perham 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Jake Averillo 4. Paul Alamoti 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Matt Burton 7. Kyle Flanagan 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Ryan Sutton 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jacob Preston 13. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 14. Jayden Okunbor 15. Corey Waddell 16. Jayden Tanner 17. Tevita Pangai Junior
Cowboys: 1. Tom Chester 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Peta Hiku 5. Brendan Elliot 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Griffin Neame 11. Coen Hess 12. Heilum Luki 13. Jason Taumalolo 14. Jake Granville 15. Mitch Dunn 16. Jamayne Taunoa-Brown 17. Riley Price
