NRL 2023 Round 4 – Betting tips & Predictions

Daniel Berson
Daniel Berson
NRL 2023 Round 4

Round 3 is done and dusted and the upsets keep on coming in. Who would’ve thought both the Dolphins and Warriors would be in the top 4 after 3 games? It really is great to consistently see such competitive matches. However, as this season continues to look like the most unpredictable one that we have had in years, I am here to help you find some value across NRL betting sites.

Round 4 Fixtures

Paramatta Eels vs Penrith Panthers

We are kicking off the week with the 2022 grand final rematch. The Penrith Panthers are currently sitting with a 1-1 record and are well rested, having had the bye last week. On the flip side the Paramatta Eels are a horrendous 0-3 to start the season and will be absolutely desperate for a win.

The bookies have almost written off the Eels here, forgetting how strong of a side they’ve been in recent years. Combining their desperation for a win in front of their home crowd, with the return of their key forward Ryan Matterson, I can see the Eels keeping this one close in a low scoring affair. 

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoTri-Bet, Either Team by 6 or less$3.00
TopSport logoParamatta Eels +8.5$1.87
Bet365 LogoUnder 39.5$1.91

Predicted Squads

Parramatta EelsEels: 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Will Penisini 4. Waqa Blake 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Junior Paulo 11. Bryce Cartwright 12. Ryan Matterson 13. J’maine Hopgood 14. Matt Doorey 15. Brendan Hands 16. Wiremu Greig 17. Makahesi Makatoa

Penrith PanthersPanther: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Brian To'o  6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Luke Garner 12. Liam Martin  13. Isaah Yeo 14. Soni Luke 15. Scott Sorensen 16. Spencer Leniu 17. Jaeman Salmon

Melbourne Storm vs Wests Tigers

Moving on to our early Friday night game, we have the Melbourne Storm taking on the Wests Tigers at AAMI Park. The Melbourne Storm are coming off back-to-back losses in matches that they were expected to win. Whereas the Tigers remain winless, despite coming within inches of a miraculous comeback last week.

The Storm are going to gain a lot of confidence, especially in attack with the return of their marquee playmaker Cameron Munster. Melbourne’s issues ultimately came down to their defense or lack thereof. I will cut them some slack and put their poor defense down to the blazing heat experienced last weekend. I think the Storm will be too classy for a Tigers side still trying to find their feet.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoMelbourne Storm 13+$2.30
TopSport logoMelbourne Storm -9.5$1.87
Bet365 LogoWests Tigers Team Total Under 16.5$1.80

Predicted Squads

Melbourne StormStorm: 1. Nick Meaney 2. Will Warbrick 3. Reimis Smith 4. Justin Olam 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster  7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Tui Kamikamica  9. Harry Grant 10. Christian Welch 11. Trent Loiero 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Josh King 14. Tyran Wishart 15. Alec MacDonald 16. Tariq Sims 17. Bronson Garlick

Wests TigersTigers: 1. Adam Doueihi  2. Charlie Staines  3. Brent Naden 4. Asu Kepaoa 5. Junior Tupou 6. Brandon Wakeham 7. Luke Brooks 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Api Koroisau 10. David Klemmer 11. Isaiah Papali’i  12. John Bateman 13.. Fonua Pole 14. Daine Laurie 15. Alex Twal 16. Shawn Blore 17. Alex Seyfarth

Dolphins vs Brisbane Broncos

In the most anticipated game of the round, the Dolphins and Broncos will battle it out on Friday night for first place in front of a sold-out Suncorp Stadium. Both sides have been very impressive over the first 3 rounds, remaining undefeated with a perfect 3-0 record. 

Both sides will be eager to grab top spot on the ladder but more importantly they will both be keen to win their first Brisbane derby. Whilst I do expect a fiery affair, I think this could be a case of Big Brother showing Little Brother who is boss. The Broncos have a far more explosive forward pack, and this combined with the experience of Adam Reynolds and the flair of Ezra Mam and Reece Walsh should be too much for the unexperienced Dolphins. I think it’s time for the Dolphins to be brought back down to Earth.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoHalf Time /Full Time Double
TopSport logoBrisbane Broncos -10.5$1.87
Bet365 LogoBrisbane Broncos -5.5 First Half$1.77

Predicted Squads

Brisbane BroncosBroncos: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Jesse Arthars 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Selwyn Cobbo 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Thomas Flegler  9. Billy Walters 10. Payne Haas 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Cory Paix 15. Keenan Palasia 16. Corey Jensen 17. Martin Taupau

DolphinsThe Dolphins: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Euan Aitken  4. Brenko Lee 5. Tesi Niu  6. Isaiya Katoa 7. Sean O’Sullivan 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Kodi Nikorima 10. Kenny Bromwich 11. Felise Kaufusi  12. Connelly Lemuelu 13. Tom Gilbert 14. Jarrod Wallace 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Ray Stone 17. Mason Teague

North Queensland Cowboys vs Gold Coast Titans

Starting off a shortened Super Saturday, we have another Queensland derby. The Cowboys are coming off a disappointing 26-12 loss to the Warriors, whereas the Titans are coming off a far more impressive 38-34 win against Melbourne. 

The Cowboys certainly missed their inform fullback Scott Drinkwater, however, his replacement Tom Chester certainly impressed with his 5th minute try. The Cowboys are once again without Drinkwater for this game, but Chester should continue to improve with each game of first grade, both in attack and defense.

The Titans on the other hand are clicking in attack, scoring points for fun, yet raising questions with their defensive efforts. They have conceded over 30 points in each of their last 2 games and I think on the back of this lackluster defense, the Cowboys should be able to get it done.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoNorth Queensland Cowboys -7.5$1.90
TopSport logoNorth Queensland Cowboys to win$1.42
Bet365 LogoNorth Queensland Cowboys to reach 20 points$1.36

Predicted Squads

North Queensland CowboysCowboys: 1. Tom Chester 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Gehamat Shibasaki  5. Murray Taulagi  6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Griffin Neame 11. Coen Hess 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Jason Taumalolo 14. Jake Granville 15. Heilum Luki 16. Jamayne Taunoa-Brown 17. James Tamou 

Gold Coast TitansTitans: 1. AJ Brimson 2. Alofiano Khan-Pereira 3. Brian Kelly 4. Aaron Schoupp 5. Phillip Sami 6. Kieran Foran 7. Tanah Boyd 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Chris Randall 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 11. David Fifita 12. Joe Stimson 13. Isaac Liu 14. Jayden Campbell 15. Jo Vuna 16. Eric Clark 17. Iszac Fa’asuamaleaui

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South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Manly Sea Eagle

We end off Saturday night with an absolute cracker, with the high-flying Sea Eagles taking on the perennial powerhouse in the South Sydney Rabbitohs. The Sea Eagles are coming off a gutsy 34-30 win against the Eels while the Rabbitohs are looking to bounce back from a devastating 20-18 loss to the Roosters.

Manly looked like a completely new side last week with Josh Schuster playing his first game of the season, returning from a calf injury at five-eighth. His combination with Tom Trbojevic was outstanding, with Schuster bagging 3 try assists. However, this Souths side will not be a walkover with proven guns such as Latrell Mitchell, Cameron Murray and Damien Cook. I think this Souths Side will be out for revenge, knowing how important this game is to them, currently sitting at a 1-2 record. We should be in for a close game of footy, filled with attacking flair.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoTri-Bet, Either Team by 6 or less$2.80
TopSport logoManly Sea Eagles +5.5$1.87
Bet365 LogoManly Sea Eagles to win$2.70

Predicted Squads

South Sydney RabbitohsRabbitohs:  Latrell Mitchell 2. Alex Johnston 3. Isaiah Tass 4. Campbell Graham 5. Izaac Thompson 6. Cody Walker 7. Lachlan Ilias 8. Daniel Suluka-Fifita 9. Damien Cook 10. Thomas Burgess 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Jacob Host 13. Cameron Murray 14. Blake Taaffe 15. Michael Chee Kam 16. Davvy Moale 17. Jed Cartwright

Manly Warringah Sea EaglesSea Eagles:  1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Christian Tuipulotu 3. Brad Parker 4. Tolutau Koula 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Josh Schuster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Jake Trbojevic 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Kelma Tuilagi 13. Josh Aloiai 14. Kaeo Weekes 15. Ben Trbojevic 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Sean Keppie

New Zealand Warriors vs Canterbury Bulldogs

We are starting off a triple header on Sunday with the Warriors facing the Bulldogs. The Warriors have had an impressive start to the season, winning 2 out of 3 matches, with their only defeat being against the formidable Roosters. The new look Bulldogs have won 2 on the trot, barely seeing out their lead last week against the Tigers.

Despite this early form from the Warriors, the Bulldogs are the better outfit here. They have a stronger forward pack as well as the ever-present danger of Matt Burton’s kicking game. On top of this, the Warriors are missing their standout performer Wade Egan who will be out due to concussion protocols. I can only see the Bulldogs improving, as Reed Mahoney begins to develop combinations with his halves partners as well as their new lethal recruit, Viliame Kikau.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoCanterbury Bulldogs -1.5$2.00
TopSport logoCanterbury Bulldogs to win$1.90
Bet365 LogoCanterbury Bulldogs race to 20 points$2.50

Predicted Squads

New Zealand WarriorsWarriors: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Edward Kosi 3. Viliami Vailea 4. Adam Pompey 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Te Maire Martin 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Freddy Lussick 10. Bunty Afoa 11. Jackson Ford 12. Marata Niukore 13. Tohu Harris 14. Dylan Walker 15. Bailey Sironen 16. Jazz Tevaga 17. Tom Ale

Canterbury-Bankstown BulldogsBulldogs: 1. Hayze Perham 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Jake Averillo 4. Paul Alamoti 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Matt Burton 7. Kyle Flanagan 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Ryan Sutton 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jacob Preston 13. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 14. Jayden Okunbor 15. Corey Waddell 16. Jayden Tanner 17. Fa’amanu Brown

Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders

Continuing Sunday’s games, we have the Newcastle Knights vs the Canberra Raiders. The Knights are coming off a 16-point loss to the Dolphins in which they were extremely undermanned, with star players Ponga, Brailey, Jacob Saifiti and Tyson Frizell. The Raiders pulled off an upset win against the Sharks but lost their starting hooker Danny Levi in the process to a fractured jaw.

The Knights showed character in their loss, keeping the game close until the last 5 minutes. However, they are still going to be a depleted side this week, missing all of those injured players on top of Dominic Young being dropped. I think the Knights injuries leave them too thin across the park and they should be outclassed by a stronger, healthier Raiders side.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoCanberra Raiders to win the first half$1.68
TopSport logoCanberra Raiders to win$1.42
Bet365 LogoCanberra Raiders -3.$1.62

Predicted Squads

Newcastle KnightsKnights: 1. Lachlan Miller 2. Hymel Hunt 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Tyson Gamble 7. Jackson Hastings 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Leo Thompson 11. Brodie Jones 12. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 13. Kurt Mann 14. Phoenix Crossland 15. Jack Hetherington 16. Mat Croker 17. Jack Johns

Canberra RaidersRaiders:  1. Sebastian Kris  2. James Schiller 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Harley Smith-Shields 5. Albert Hopoate 6. Jack Wighton 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papalii 9. Zac Woolford 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Corey Harawira-Naera 14. Tom Starling 15. Pasami Saulo 16. Corey Horsburgh 17. Emre Guler

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Cronulla Sharks

What better way to end the week than with one of the rugby league’s greatest rivalries! Both sides are coming off a loss last week and will be looking to enact revenge on their cross-town rivals. Before the season, the Dragons were tipped to be one of the worse teams in the comp, however impressed in their first outing and were very competitive last week despite the misleading 40-18 score line. On the flipside the Cronulla Sharks are holding a 1-2 record, losing tough games without their main man and 2022 Dally M winner Nicho Hynes.

This game has historically been a tight affair, but the Sharks have recently gained an edge, winning the last 6 meetings between the two. Last season, the Sharks shocked everyone to finish in an impressive second place on the back of Nicho Hynes. They certainly missed him in their first 3 weeks, but all signs point to his return from a calf injury this week and if he takes the field on Sunday, I see the Sharks winning this one comfortably.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoCronulla Sharks 13+$3.10
TopSport logoCronulla Sharks -5.5$1.87
Bet365 LogoHalf Time /Full Time Double

Predicted Squads

St. George Illawarra DragonsDragons: 1. Tyrell Sloan 2. Mathew Feagai 3. Moses Suli 4. Zac Lomax 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Jayden Sullivan 7. Ben Hunt 8. Francis Molo 9. Moses Mbye 10. Blake Lawrie 11. Ben Murdoch-Masila 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Jack Bird 14. Jacob Liddle 15. Zane Musgrove 16. Toby Couchman 17. Josh Kerr

Cronulla-Sutherland SharksSharks:  1. Will Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Siosifa Talakai 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Matt Moylan 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Toby Rudolf 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Braden Hamlin-Uele 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Dale Finucane 14. Cameron McInnes 15. Royce Hunt 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Braydon Trindall

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