NRL 2023 Round 21 – Betting tips & Predictions

 Daniel Berson
By:
Daniel Berson
18/07/2023
NRL
NRL 2023 Round 21 – Betting tips & Predictions

Round 20 is in the books and it was another great one! All 8 favourites won this week, with notable performances from Shaun Johnson and the Warriors, thrashing the Sharks and the Eels stealing a 1-point win over the Titans. Now onto round 21, packed with great matchups including the Rabbitohs vs the Broncos and the Cowboys hosting the Eels. Stay tuned as we help you find value across all 8 games this week.

Round 21 Fixtures

FixturesInfo (AEST)Home OddsAway Odds
Dragons vs TigersThursday, 20th July 7:50pm$1.63$2.20
Warriors vs RaidersFriday, 21st July 6pm$1.43$2.70
Rabbitohs vs BroncosFriday, 21st July 6pm$1.60$2.25
Titans vs Roosters Saturday, 22nd July 3pm$2.18$1.64
Knights vs StormSaturday, 22nd July 5:30pm$3.10$1.34
Cowboys vs EelsSaturday, 22nd July 7:35pm$1.48$2.54
Panthers vs BulldogsSunday, 23rd July 2pm$1.03$10.50
Sharks vs Sea EaglesSunday, 23rd July 4:05pm$1.42$2.85

Dragons vs Tigers

Kicking off the round we have a bottom of the table clash as the Dragons host the Tigers. The Dragons will be well rested after coming off the bye last week, while the Tigers suffered a 34-18-point loss to the Knights. While the season is all but over for these 2 sides, they will both be keen on a win here, as they currently hold 3 and 6 game losing streaks respectively. During this time for the Tigers, Koroisau has been out, but they looked a far better side despite their loss last week.

These sides are both performing poorly but while the Dragons have players who seem to be on the way out such as Ben Hunt, the Tigers have a young core, who should use the rest of this season to stamp their spot and develop. Jahream Bula has looked great since coming into the side, notably scoring 2 tries last week. Historically this one has been a tight affair, with 4 of the last 5 meetings between these 2 sides being decided by 8 points or less. I think this one should be no different, a close affair that I think the Tigers could steal.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoEither team by 6 or less$2.75
TopSport logoTigers +3.5$1.95
Bet365 LogoEither team to win by 1-12$1.72

Predicted Squads

St. George Illawarra DragonsDragons: 1. Tyrell Sloan 2. Mat Feagai 3. Moses Suli 4. Zac Lomax 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Talatau Amone 7. Ben Hunt 8. Francis Molo 9. Jacob Liddle 10. Blake Lawrie 11. Billy Burns 12. Dan Russell 13. Jack De Belin 14. Moses Mbye 15. Michael Molo 16. Toby Couchmann 17. Jack Bird

Wests TigersTigers: 1. Jahream Bula 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Staford To’a 4. Tommy Talau 5. Junior Tupou 6. Daine Laurie 7. Brandon Wakeham 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Jake Simpkin 10. David Klemmer 11. Isaiah Papali’I 12. John Bateman 13. Shawn Blore 14. Tallyn Da Silva 15. Fonua Pole 16. Alex Seyfarth 17. Alex Twal

Warriors vs Raiders

Our early Friday Night game sees the inform Warriors hosting the Raiders. The Raiders are coming off a bye, while the Warriors are coming off an extremely impressive 44-12 victory over the Sharks. The Warriors have looked great all year but are really turning it up at the tail end of the season. Shaun Johnson was the standout, getting 4 try assists, a 40-20 and a forced dropout. With the Warriors soft run home, they will truly believe that they are a chance for the top 4.

The Raiders have also been great, holding a 3-game win streak, despite all 3 games being decided by 10-points or less against weaker opposition. The Raiders have had an incredible ability to win close games but with the way the Warriors are playing, in New Zealand, knowing they have the bye next week, I think they should be far too good for the Raiders here.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoWarriors -6.5$1.82
TopSport logoHalftime/Fulltime Double – Warriors/Warriors$1.88
Bet365 LogoWarriors -3.5 First Half$1.82

Predicted Squads

New Zealand WarriorsWarriors: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Rocco Berry 4. Adam Pompey 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Luke Metcalf 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Bunty Afoa 11. Jackson Ford 12. Marata Niukore 13. Tohu Harris 14. Dylan Walker 15.  Mitch Barnett 16. Tom Ale 17. Freddy Lussick

Canberra RaidersRaiders: 1. Sebastian Kris 2. Albert Hopoate 3. Jared Croker 4. Matthew Timoko 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Jack Wighton 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papalii 9. Zac Woolford 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Ellot Whitehead 13. Corey Horsburgh 14. Tom Starling 15. Emre Guler 16. Pasami Saulo 17. Ata Mariota

Rabbitohs vs Broncos

Our second game on Friday Night sees the Rabbitohs hosting the Broncos. This is undoubtedly the game of the round as we see 2 of the competition heavyweights battling it out in a game that could prove crucial in the race for the top 4. The Rabbitohs have been disappointing lately, losing 3 of their last 4, however, these were heavily impacted by injuries and Origin outs. This week the Rabbitohs will be hoping to welcome back Latrell Mitchell, Campbell Graham and Jai Arrow from injuries. The Broncos will also have a host of players returning, with Walsh, Carrigan and Haas all tipped to return from suspension, rests and injuries. 

This is one of the games of the season, 2 of the best teams in both attack and defense going at it. With the race for finals footy being so tight, I expect both sides to play as if their season depends on this game. It is almost impossible to split these sides, this one should be an extremely tight affair, filled with good attacking footy. 

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoBroncos +3.5$1.87
TopSport logoEither team by 6 or less$2.80
Bet365 LogoEither team to win by 1-12$1.75

Predicted Squads

South Sydney RabbitohsRabbitohs: 1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Alex Johnston 3. Isaiah Tass 4. Campbell Graham 5. Taane Milne 6. Cody Walker 7. Lachlan Ilias 8. Tevita Tatola 9. Damien Cook 10. Hame Sele 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Jai Arrow 13. Cameron Murray 14. Blake Taafe 15. Siliva Havili 16. Tom Burgess 17. Jacob Host

Brisbane BroncosBroncos: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Jesse Arthars 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Selwyn Cobbo 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Keenan Palasia 9. Billy Walters 10. Payne Haas 11. Brendan Piakua 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Pat Carrigan 14. Tyson Smoothy 15. Corey Jensen 16. Kobe Hetherington 17. Martin Tapau

Titans vs Roosters

Kicking off Super Saturday we have the Titans hosting the Roosters. The Titans are coming off a gutting 1-point defeat to the Eels, while the Roosters are coming off a 14-point loss to the Storm. Both sides sit on 20 competition points, at least 2 wins outside of the top 8, very unlikely for either to make it. The Roosters showed moments last week, creating 8 linebreaks to Melbourne’s 3, yet their low competition and poor discipline let them down once again. However, this will be the first week in a long time that the Roosters have Tedesco, Manu, Keary, Brandon Smith and even potentially Sam Walker on the field together.

The Titans on the other hand are likely to be without star prop Tino Fa'asuamaleaui due to a shoulder charge. This is a massive loss for the Titans and will impact their ability to win the battle through the middle. This fixture has been dominated by the Roosters in recent history, with the Roosters winning the last 7 out of 8 encounters between these sides. I think the Roosters have the stronger pack here and with a lot of their injuries returning, I see them winning this one.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoRoosters to win first half$1.88
TopSport logoRoosters -3.5$1.82
Bet365 LogoRoosters to win$1.68

Predicted Squads

Gold Coast TitansTitans: 1. AJ Brimson 2. Alofiano Khan-Pereira 3. Brian Kelly 4. Jojo Fifita 5. Phillip Sami 6. Kieran Foran 7. Tanah Boyd 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Sam Verills 10. Isaac Liu 11. David Fifita 12. Klese Haas 13. Erin Clark 14. Jayden Campbell 15. Chris Randall 16. Joe Stimson 17. Jacob Alick

Sydney RoostersRoosters: 1. Jamed Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Billy Smith 4. Joey Manu 5. Joseph Suaalii 6. Luke Keary 7. Sandon Smith 8. Jared Warea-Hargreaves 9. Jake Turpin 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Nat Butcher 12. Victor Radley 13. Nathan Brown 14. Brandon Smith 15. Egan Butcher 16. Siua Wong 17. Terrell May

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Knights vs Storm

Our second game of Super Saturday sees the Knights hosting the Storm. Both sides are coming off impressive wins, with the Knights beating the Tigers by 16 while the Storm beat the Roosters by 14. The Knights currently sit in 10th position, 3 points outside of the top 8 and will know this is a must win game if they want to play finals footy. The Storm on the other hand, sit in the top 4 and will see this as a crucial game if they want a second chance come finals time. The Knights have really looked great since Ponga moved to fullback, assisting 8 tries and scoring 3 in 6 games. The Knights have been competitive in every outing since the shift, losing by at most 8 points which was against the Panthers.

While the Storm have been good, sitting in 3rd spot, they certainly haven’t looked amazing. They beat the Roosters but looked vulnerable, conceding 8 linebreaks while only creating 3 and lost 34-16 to the Panthers the week before. The Knights look to be a very good attacking side right now, able to compete with the very best and I am going to have to take the headstart here.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoKnights +4.5 First Half$1.77
TopSport logoKnights +8.5$1.82
Bet365 LogoStorm 1-12$3.10

Predicted Squads

Newcastle KnightsKnights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Dominic Young 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Tyson Gamble 7. Jackson Hastings 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 13. Adam Elliot 14. Kurt Mann 15. Jacob Saifiti 16. Jack Hetherington 17. Mat Croker

Melbourne StormStorm: 1. Nick Meaney 2. Will Warbrick 3. Reimis Smith 4. Justin Olam 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Tui Kamikamica 9. Harry Grant 10. Christian Welch 11. Trent Loiero 12. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 13. Josh King 14. Tyran Wishart 15. Tom Eisenhuth 16. Tariq Sims 17. Alec MacDonald

Cowboys vs Eels

Our final game of Super Saturday sees the Cowboys hosting the Eels. The Cowboys are coming off a great defensive performance, beating the Sea Eagles 19-8, while the Eels are coming off a 1-point win against the Titans thanks to a heroic Gutherson put down. This is a fantastic encounter on paper, with the Cowboys being the team to beat, winning their last 5 games in a row, to make a late push for the top 8, while the Eels are 7-3 in their last 10 games. The Eels have scored the most points this season while the Cowboys have scored the 4th most.

The big news here are the suspensions for the Eels. Maika Sivo and RCG are both set to be suspended for a high tackle and dangerous contact in the game last week. Losing their top try scorer and one of their best forwards is bound to impact them. With these outs, I think the Eels will struggle to compete against the Cowboys, who have finally found their form from last year.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoHalftime/Fulltime Double – Cowboys/Cowboys$1.95
TopSport logoCowboys -5.5$1.82
Bet365 LogoCowboys to win$1.44

Predicted Squads

North Queensland CowboysCowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Semi Valemei 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Peta Hiku 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan Mclean 9. Reece Robson 10. Coen Hess 11. Luciano Leilua 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter 14. Jake Granville 15. Griffin Neame 16. Jason Taumalolo 17. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki

Parramatta EelsEels: 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Will Penisini 4. Bailey Simonsson 5. Sean Russell 6. Daejarn Asi 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Ofahiki Ogden 9. Brendan Hands 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Bryce Cartwright 13. J’maine Hopgood 14. Luca Moretti 15. Joe Ofahengaue 16. Andre Davery 17. Ryan Matterson

Panthers vs Bulldogs

For our first game on Sunday, we see the Panthers hosting the Bulldogs. The Panthers are coming off a win against the Dolphins, despite resting all their Origin starts and electing not to play Nathan Cleary, while the Bulldogs had a bye. This is a David vs Goliath encounter, with the Panthers sitting in 1st spot on the ladder, conceding less than 13 points a game, while the Bulldogs sit in 15th spot, conceding over 30 points a game. The Panthers will be welcoming back all of their Origin players and Nathan Cleary should return from a hamstring injury, only improving their side.

The Panthers have won 3 in a row and 8 of their last 10. They have won their previous 5 encounters against the Bulldogs, with 4 of them being by 20-points or more. It is hard to make a case for the Bulldogs here, the Panthers should win comfortably. 

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoPanthers -11.5 First Half$1.77
TopSport logoPanthers -24.5$1.87
Bet365 LogoPanthers to trail in the match - No$1.48

Predicted Squads

Penrith PanthersPanthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Brian To’o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Soni Luke 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Spencer Leniu 17. Luke Garner

Canterbury-Bankstown BulldogsBulldogs: 1. Jake Averillo 2. Blake Wilson 3. Jacob Kiraz 4. Paul Alamoti 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Matt Burton 7. Kyle Flannagan 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 11. Jackson Topine 12. Jacob Preston 13. Corey Waddell 14. Harrison Edwards 15. Kurtis Morrin 16. Tevita Pangai Junior 17. Jayden Okunbor

Sharks vs Sea Eagles

Closing out the round we have the Sharks hosting the Sea Eagles. The Sharks will be low on confidence after losing by 32-points to the Warriors, while the Sea Eagles suffered a disappointing 11-point loss to the Cowboys. The Sharks sit in 6th position, just 1 win ahead of 9th position, with every game being crucial to their hopes for finals footy. The Sea Eagles on the other hand are 3-points off 8th spot, without Tom Trbojevic and with games against Penrith and the Warriors in New Zealand, their finals dream is looking unlikely.

The Sharks while abysmal last week, have repeatedly shown their ability to beat the sides not in the top 8 yet lose to the top 8 teams. With their desperation for a win with their tough run home and the return of Finucane and hopefully Hamlin-Uele, I think they should be too good for Manly. 

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoHalftime/Fulltime Double – Sharks/Sharks$1.85
TopSport logoSharks -7.5$1.87
Bet365 LogoSharks -4.5 First Half$1.97

Predicted Squads

Cronulla-Sutherland SharksSharks: 1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Connor Tracey 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Oregon Kaufusi 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Toby Rudolf 11. Briton Nikora 12. Jesse Colquhoun 13. Dale Finucane 14. Cameron Mcinnes 15. Siosifa Talakai 16. Jack Williams 17. Tom Hazelton

Manly Warringah Sea EaglesSea Eagles: 1. Reuben Garrick 2. Jason Saab 3. Brad Parker 4. Tolutau Koula 5. Christian Tuipulotu 6. Josh Schuster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Josh Aloiai 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Kelma Tuilagi 13. Jake Trbojevic 14. Dean Matterson 15. Aaron Woods 16. Sean Keppie 17. Matthew Lodge

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