NRL 2023 Round 11 – Betting tips & Predictions

 Daniel Berson
By:
Daniel Berson
09/05/2023
NRL
NRL 2023 Round 11

Magic Round is over and what a round it was! All four Queensland teams got the win in front of a home crowd, the Tigers were able to pick up back-to-back wins and the Rabbitohs let everyone know that they are the new competition favourites. Now back to a regular round in Round 11, filled with exciting matchups. Stay tuned to find value across all 8 NRL games this week.

Round 11 Fixtures

FixturesInfo (AEST)Home OddsAway Odds
Storm vs BroncosThursday, 11th May 7:50pm$1.68$2.20
Bulldogs vs WarriorsFriday, 12th May 6pm$2.10$1.75
Panthers vs RoostersFriday, 12th May 8pm$1.50$2.60
Rabbitohs vs TigersSaturday,13th May 3pm$1.14$5.50
Cowboys vs DragonsSaturday, 13th May 5:30pm$1.44$2.80
Raiders vs EelsSaturday, 13th May 7:35pm$1.65$2.25
Knights vs TitansSunday, 14th May 2pm$2.00$1.82
Sea Eagles vs SharksSunday, 14th May 4:05pm$2.50$1.54

Storm vs Broncos

We kick off the week with the game of the round as the Storm host the Broncos at AAMI Park. The Broncos have been in great form this season and continued that last week, comfortably beating the Sea Eagles 32-6, aided by the return of Payne Haas and Ezra Mam. The Storm were unable to show up, easily beaten by the Rabbitohs who terrorized Melbourne’s weak right edge defense.

Both sides are coming into this game healthy, with the Storm welcoming back Tui Kamikamica from suspension while the Broncos should remain unchanged. While the Storm have been dominant in this fixture in recent history, winning each of the last 5, this is a different game than it has been recently. The Storm are not the same heavyweights they have been in recent years, losing key forwards to other clubs and Ryan Papenhuyzen to a long-term injury, while this Broncos side can beat anyone at their best. I think it should be a tight game, built on defense, but I do think the Broncos are the better side here.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoEither team by 6 or less$2.70
TopSport logoBroncos +2.5$1.87
Bet365 LogoUnder 41.5$1.91

Predicted Squads

Melbourne StormStorm: 1. Nick Meaney 2. Will Warbrick 3. Reimis Smith 4. Justin Olam 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 9. Harry Grant 10. Christian Welch 11. Trent Loiero 12. Tariq Sims 13. Josh King 14. Bronson Garlick 15. Alec MacDonald 16. Tom Eisenhuth 17. Tui Kamikamica

Brisbane BroncosBroncos: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Jesse Arthars 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Selwyn Cobbo 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Thomas Flegler  9. Billy Walters 10. Payne Haas 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Cory Paix 15. Corey Jenses 16. Kobe Hetherington 17. Martin Taupau

Bulldogs vs Warriors

Our early game on Friday night sees the Bulldogs host the Warriors. Despite their awesome start to the season, the Warriors have fallen off lately, slipping down to 11th place after 3 losses in a row. The Bulldogs have had a tough season filled with injuries and are yet to find their form, sitting in a very disappointing 15th position.

Although the Warriors have now lost 3 in a row, these have all been to top opposition, in the Storm, Roosters and Panthers. Even in these losses, the Warriors have shown promising signs, defending well in the last 2 and having a tight affair against the Storm. The Bulldogs have been poor in defense this year, conceding the most points and with both teams struggling to get their attack going, I think the Warriors should win this one in a low scoring game.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoWarriors 1-12$3.00
TopSport logoWarriors -2.5$1.87
Bet365 LogoUnder 41.5$1.91

Predicted Squads

Canterbury-Bankstown BulldogsBulldogs: 1. Hayze Perham 2. Declan Casey 3. Jake Averillo 4. Paul Alamoti 5. Jacob Kiraz 6. Josh Reynolds 7. Matt Burton 8. Ryan Sutton 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Tevita Pangai Junior 11. Corey Wadell 12. Jacob Preston 13. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 14. Kurtis Morrin 15. Karl Oloapu 16. Jayden Okunbor 17. Franklin Pele

New Zealand WarriorsWarriors: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Marcelo Montoya 4. Adam Pompey 5. Edward Kosi 6. Dylan Walker 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Bunty Afoa 11. Jackson Ford 12. Marata Niukore 13. Tohu Harris 14. Freddy Lussick 15. Josh Curran 16. Tom Ale 17. Demitric Sifakula

Panthers vs Roosters

Our second Friday night game is a blockbuster fixture as the Panthers host the Roosters. While both sides are sitting in the top 8, they have both been disappointing this year with both sides holding a 5-4 record. The Roosters were incredibly disappointing last week, offering very little in attack, losing 20-6 to the Cowboys. The Panthers on the other hand beat the Warriors in a low scoring affair at Magic Round.

This fixture has been dominated by the Panthers, winning each of the last 7 games and I think this could continue. The Roosters have been dreadful in attack, scoring the second least points in the competition! The Panthers are a ruthless side that will look to dominate if the Roosters are sloppy in attack again, and I think this one should be relatively comfortable for the reigning premiers.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoHalftime/Fulltime Double – Panthers/Panthers$2.15
TopSport logoPanthers -5.5$1.87
Bet365 LogoPanthers -2.5 First Half$1.91

Predicted Squads

Penrith PanthersPanthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Tyrone Peachey 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Brian To'o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Zac Hosking 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Soni Luke 15. Linday Smith 16. Spencer Leniu 17. Jaeman Salmon

Sydney RoostersRoosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Corey Allan 3. Joseph Suaalii 4. Billy Smith 5. Jaxson Paulo 6. Joseph Manu 7. Luke Keary 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Brandon Smith 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Egan Butcher 12. Nat Butcher 13. Victor Radley 14. Drew Hutchison 15. Angus Crichton 16. Sitili Tupouniua 17. Matt Lodge

Rabbitohs vs Tigers

Kicking off our Super Saturday we have the Rabbitohs hosting the Tigers. The Rabbitohs have looked absolutely unbeatable, picking up 5 wins in a row, including wins against the Storm, Broncos and Panthers. The Tigers have found some recent form, picking up their first win of the season 2 weeks ago and backing it up with another gutsy win last week against the Dragons.

Despite the Tigers recent gutsy performances, I don’t think it will be enough to get them close to this Rabbitohs side. The Rabbitohs have been absolutely dominant, particularly Latrell Mitchell and Cody Walker who have been tearing down defenses for fun. This Rabbitohs side is almost back at full fitness now with Tatola fit and I think they should lay a solid platform for their backs and halves to have a field day. I can’t see the Tigers coming close here.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoRabbitohs 13+$1.70
TopSport logoRabbitohs -15.5$1.87
Bet365 LogoRabbitohs -7.5 First Half$1.89

Predicted Squads

South Sydney RabbitohsRabbitohs: 1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Alex Johnston 3. Isaiah Tass 4. Campbell Graham 5. Taane Milne 6. Cody Walker 7. Lachlan Ilias 8. Tevita Tatola 9. Damien Cook 10. Jai Arrow 11. Michael Chee Kam12. Jacob Host 13. Cameron Murray 14. Jed Cartwright 15. Davvy Moale 16. Hame Sele 17. Thomas Burgess

Wests TigersTigers: 1. Jahream Bula 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Starford To’a 4. Brent Naden 5. Junior Tupou 6. Brandon Wakeham 7. Luke Brooks 8. Stefano Utoikamano 9. Api Koroisau 10. David Klemmer 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. Asu Kepaoa 13. Fonua Pole 14. Jake Simpkin 15. Joe Ofahengaue 16. Alex Twal 17. Alex Seyfarth

Cowboys vs Dragons

We continue on Super Saturday with the Cowboys hosting the Dragons. Both sides have really been struggling this year and will be desperate to pick up a win, sitting in 14th anf 16th place respectively on the ladder. Despite this poor form, last week the Cowboys showed that they still have the ability to play like they did last year, dominating the Roosters in a great performance. For the Dragons things go from bad to worse as they lost to the bottom place Tigers, making it 5 defeats in a row.

The Cowboys are still without Taumalolo and Nanai, but their other forwards have really stepped up, with Cotter working as hard as ever while Coen Hess has made a shift from the edge to the middle. Even without these players, the Cowboys are the far better side here and are playing at home. I think this could be the start of the Cowboys’ revival as they are a far better side than their ladder position suggests. I think the Cowboys should cover the line here.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoHalftime/Fulltime Double – Cowboys/Cowboys $2.15
TopSport logoCowboys to win$1.47
Bet365 LogoCowboys -5.5$1.72

Predicted Squads

North Queensland CowboysCowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Peta Hiku 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan Mclean 9. Reece Robson 10. Coen Hess 11. Jack Gosiewski 12. Heilum Luki 13. Reuben Cotter 14. Jake Granville 15. Mitchell Dunn 16. Jamayne Taunoa-Brown 17. Kulikefu Finefuiaki

St. George Illawarra DragonsDragons: 1. Tyrell Sloan 2. Mathew Feagai 3. Moses Suli 4. Zac Lomax 5. Max Feagai 6. Talatau Amone 7. Ben Hunt 8. Jack de Belin 9. Moses Mbye 10. Blake Lawrie 11. Billy Burns 12. Jayden Su’a13. Jack Bird 14. Jayden Sullivan 15. Michael Molo 16. Ben Murdoch-Masila 17. Josh Kerr

Raiders vs Eels

In our final game of Super Saturday, the Raiders host the Eels. The Raiders picked up a crucial 4-point win against the Bulldogs to extend their winning streak to an impressive 4, while the Eels failed to complete a late comeback, losing by 2-points to the Titans. Despite the Raiders slow start to the season, Ricky Stewart seems to have found his preferred middle rotation, with Corey Horsburgh playing the best footy of his career. He has played 60+ minutes in each of the last 4, up from 30-40 minutes beforehand.

The Eels have been struggling without key forward Campbell-Gillard and their injury toll goes from bad to worse with star man Mitchell Moses being ruled out to a head knock. The Eels will likely bring in Jake Arthur into the halves and I think this new combination will struggle in attack, with Moses playing such an important role for the Eels, both controlling the game and leading their attack. Without him Gutherson and Brown will really need to step up, which they are both more than capable of doing. When fully fit the Eels are the better side here, but with the injuries I think this game will be won on the back of great defense, and I am expecting it to be a very tight low scoring game. 

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoEither team by 6 or less$2.75
TopSport logoEels +3.5$1.87
Bet365 LogoUnder 42.5$1.91

Predicted Squads

Canberra RaidersRaiders: 1. Sebastian Kris 2. Albert Hopoate 3. Jared Croker 4. Matthew Timoko 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Jack Wighton 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papalii 9. Zac Woolford 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Corey Horsburgh 14. Tom Starling 15. Emre Guler 16. Pasami Saulo 17. Corey Harawira-Naera

Parramatta EelsEels: 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Will Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Haze Dunster 6. Dylan Brown 7. Jake Arthur 8. Wiremu Grieg 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Andrew Davey 13. J’maine Hopgood 14. Bryce Cartwright 15. Brendan Hands 16. Ryan Matterson 17. Makahesi Makatoa

Knights vs Titans

Kicking off our Sunday we have the Knights hosting the Titans. The Knights should be well rested coming off the bye, with some players even taking a mid-season trip to Bali, while the Titans are coming off a brilliant performance, edging the Eels by 2. The Knights were able to find great form early in the season, but have struggled lately, losing 3 in a row. The Titans have been impressive this season, sitting in 7th position on the back of a 2-game win streak.

The Titans are really finding some form, especially young winger Khan-Pereira who has already grabbed a whopping 11 tries this season! This great try scoring form has no doubt been aided by his combination with David Fifita who is playing his most consistent footy ever, running for almost 170m a game and collecting 5 try assists. I think the Titans have finally found out how to utilize their forward pack and on the back of this I see good things ahead for Gold Coast fans.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoTitans -1.5$1.95
TopSport logoTitans to win$1.80
Bet365 LogoTitans -0.5 First Half$2.00

Predicted Squads

Newcastle KnightsKnights: 1. Lachlan Miller 2. Dominic Young 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Kalyn Ponga 7. Jackson Hastings 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 13. Adam Elliot 14. Tyson Gamble 15. Jacob Saifiti 16. Matt Croker 17. Jack Hetherington

Gold Coast TitansTitans: 1. Jayden Campbell 2. Alofiano Khan-Pereira 3. Brian Kelly 4. Jojo Fifita 5. Phillip Sami 6. Kieran Foran 7. Tanah Boyd 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Chris Randall 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 11. David Fifita 12. Joe Stimson 13. Isaac Liu 14. Keano Kini 15. Erin Clark 16. Klese Haas 17. Joe Vuna

Sea Eagles vs Sharks

Finishing off the round we have the Sea Eagles hosting the Sharks. Both sides are coming off extremely poor performances, with the Sea Eagles getting thrashed 32-6 by the Broncos while the Sharks fell victim to a Wayne Bennett ambush on game 900, losing 36-16. Manly have not looked themselves of late, particularly Tom Trbojevic who still looks to be suffering from a slight injury. Tom isn’t running the ball like he did last year, and he looks a bit cautious when running the ball, not something you want to see from your superstar.

Despite the Sharks poor performance, they have been very good this year, sitting at 4th spot. Nicho Hynes was nowhere to be seen last week and the Sharks suffered from it, but I am expecting a bounce back and return to his usual unstoppable best. The Sea Eagles are also missing Jake Trbojevic due to a calf injury and I think the Sharks will be too much for them unless Tom Trbojevic finds some form and shakes off that injury, which seems unlikely based on his recent outings.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoSharks to win First Half$1.70
TopSport logoSharks -5.5$1.87
Bet365 LogoSharks to win$1.54

Predicted Squads

Sea Eagles: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Brad Parker 4. Morgan Harper 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Cooper Johns 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Sean Keppie 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Kelma Tuilagi 13. Josh Aloiai 14. Karl Lawton 15. Ethan Bullemor 16. Ben Trbojevic 17. Aaron Wood

Sharks: 1. Will Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Siosifa Talakai 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Matt Moylan 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Oregon Kaufusi 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Royce Hunt 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Dale Finucane 14. Wade Graham, 15. Jack Williams 16. Thomas Hazelton 17. Cameron Mcinnes

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