NRL 2023 Finals Round 1 – Betting tips & Predictions

Daniel Berson
Daniel Berson
NRL 2023 Finals Round 1

The regular season is in the books and it is now time for finals footy! The Roosters beat the Rabbitohs to steal their spot in the top 8, while the Panthers crushed any hopes the Cowboys had. This week we have the Sharks hosting the Roosters and the Knights hosting the Raiders in do or die matches, while the Panthers host the Warriors and the Broncos host the Storm. Stay tuned as we help you navigate finals footy and find value across all 4 games.

Finals Round 1 Fixtures

FixturesInfo (AEST)Home OddsAway Odds
Broncos vs StormFriday, 8th September 7:50pm$1.58$2.40
Panthers vs WarriorsSaturday, 9th September 4:05pm$1.23$4.20
Sharks vs RoostersSaturday, 9th September 4:05pm$1.78$2.05
Knights vs RaidersSunday, 10th September 4:05pm$1.25$4.00

Broncos vs Storm

Kicking off the round and kicking off the finals series we have the Broncos hosting the Storm. This one is a top 4 matchup and is therefore not a knockout game, with the loser facing the winner of the Sharks vs Roosters game. Interestingly this one is a rematch from last week, where the Storm edged the Broncos 32-22, although neither side were close to full strength. Coming into this one, the Broncos should get a huge boost, with Reynolds and Carrigan returning from injury, while Staggs returns from a suspension. The Storm will also receive a boost, welcoming back Hughes and Grant from injury.

With both these sides at their best this one is bound to be a great game. The Broncos have been amazing this season both in attack and defense, looking like a well-oiled machine. The Storm are just reintroducing Papenhuyzen who although scored and assisted last week, looked tired towards the end. I think the Broncos have been the better team all year and should be too much for the Storm to handle at Suncorp.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoBroncos to win the first half$1.80
TopSport logoBroncos -4$1.90
Bet365 LogoBroncos 1-12$2.30

Official Squads

Brisbane BroncosBroncos: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Jesse Arthars 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Selwyn Cobbo 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Tom Flegler 9. Billy Walters 10. Payne Haas 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Tyson Smoothy 15. Brendan Piakura 16. Kobe Hetherington 17. Keenan Palasia

Melbourne StormStorm: 1. Nick Meaney 2. Will Warbrick 3. Marion Seve 4. Young Tonumaipea 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Tui Kamikamica 9. Harry Grant 10. Christian Welch 11. Trent Loiero 12. Eli Katoa 13. Josh King 14. Bronson Garlick 15. Tom Eisenhuth 16. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 17. Ryan Papenhuyzen

Panthers vs Warriors

For our second game of the round we have the Panthers hosting the Warriors. The Panthers are coming off an impressive 44-12 win against the Cowboys, silencing any doubters after last week. The Warriors are coming off a 34-10 loss to the Dolphins, although they were resting most of their key players. While the Panthers lost Luai, they look as dangerous as ever, with Cogger looking at home in the number 6 jersey. The Panthers are now 9-1 in their last 10 games, secured another minor premiership and are once again the form team to beat in the competition.

The Warriors have lost Luke Metcalf to injury and even when fully fit, this game is a tough ask. The Warriors have been incredible this season but have shown signs of fatigue in recent weeks, losing to the Dolphins and struggling in their previous 3 games. Away from home, against the back-to-back premiers, I think the Panthers should overwhelm the Warriors.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoPanthers -5.5 First Half$1.72
TopSport logoPanthers -12.5$1.95
Bet365 LogoPanthers to win both halves$1.95

Official Squads

Penrith PanthersPanthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Brian To'o. 6. Jack Cogger 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Tyrone Peachey 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Spencer Leniu 17. Zac Hosking

New Zealand WarriorsWarriors: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Rocco Berry 4. Adam Pompey 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Te Maire Martin 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Mitch Barnett 11. Jackson Ford 12. Marata Niukore 13. Tohu Harris 14. Dylan Walker 15. Jazz Tevaga 16. Bayley Sironen 17. Josh Curran

Sharks vs Roosters

Our second game on Saturday sees the Sharks hosting the Roosters. This one is undoubtedly the closest game of the round, with all the other games having a clear favourite. The big news here is the injury of Sharks fullback Connor Tracey, who will be racing the clock to prove his fitness for the game. If he is out, Nicho Hynes likely slots into fullback due to Dykes and Kennedy both being out. The Roosters are set to gain a massive boost, with Joey Manu likely returning from a hamstring injury suffered 2 weeks ago.

The Roosters have looked like a completely different side in recent weeks, showing great discipline in defense against the Rabbitohs. Luke Keary has looked electric in attack recently, combined with the attacking threat of Tedesco, Suaalii and Manu. I think the Roosters have finally clicked into gear and shown what their star-studded lineup can do.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoRoosters +0.5 First Half$1.72
TopSport logo

Roosters to win

Bet365 LogoRoosters +1.5$1.91

Official Squads

Cronulla-Sutherland SharksSharks: 1. Connor Tracey 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Siosifa Talakai 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Toby Rudolf 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Braden Hamlin-Uele 11. Briton Nikora 12. Wade Graham 13. Cam McInnes 14. Jack Williams 15. Royce Hunt 16. Tom Hazelton 17. Oregon Kaufusi

Sydney RoostersRoosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Fetalaiga Pauga 3. Billy Smith 4. Joseph Manu 5. Joseph Suaalii 6. Luke Keary 7. Sam Walker 8. Fletcher Baker 9. Brandon Smith 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Siua Wong 12. Nat Butcher 13. Victor Radley 14. Sandon Smith 15. Egan Butcher 16. Terrell May 17. Angus Crichton

Knights vs Raiders

Closing out the round we have the Knights hosting the Raiders. The Knights breezed past the Dragons, 32-12, despite resting most of their star players. The Raiders lost their second game in a row, falling short against the Sharks, no thanks to a sendoff from Kris. Coming into this one, the Knights are set to get a massive boost, with Ponga and Hastings set to return this week. The Knights now hold a 9-game winning streak, comfortably the largest in the competition.

The Raiders are coming into this one missing a few key players, with Horsburgh suspended, Kris likely to face a suspension and Papalii injured. With the Knights in the form they are in and the Raiders undermanned as they are, I see the Knights extending their winning streak to 10.

BookmakerDaniel’s TipOdds
Playup logoKnights -5.5 First Half$1.75
TopSport logoKnights -12$1.90
Bet365 LogoKnights to win both halves$1.95

Official Squads

Newcastle KnightsKnights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Dominic Young 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Tyson Gamble 7. Jackson Hastings 8. Jacob Saifiti 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 13. Adam Elliott 14. Kurt Mann 15. Daniel Saifiti 16. Jack Hetherington 17. Mat Croker

Canberra RaidersRaiders: 1. Jordan Rapana 2. James Schiller 3. Jack Wighton 4. Matthew Timoko 5. Nick Cotric 6. Matt Frawley 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Ata Mariota 9. Zac Woolford 10. Joe Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Hohepa Puru 14. Tom Starling 15. Emre Guler 16. Pasami Saulo 17. Trey Mooney

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